As many as four out of five South Africans may have contracted the coronavirus, indicating that the country may be one of the world\u2019s hardest-hit nations by the disease, the chief actuary at Africa\u2019s biggest health insurer said.<\/p>\n
Emile Stipp, the actuary at Discovery Health, based his calculations on the country\u2019s case-fatality rate and excess deaths, a measure of the number of fatalities compared with an historical average.<\/p>\n
They are thought to provide a more accurate picture of the impact of the pandemic than the official toll.<\/p>\n
“If we know the mortality rate of Covid, we can deduce the likely infection level,” Stipp said in an emailed response to questions.<\/p>\n
The infection rate of between 70% and 80%, as estimated by Stipp, is high by global standards and could push South Africa close to so-called herd immunity, estimated at between 80% and 90% by the Infectious Diseases Society of America.<\/p>\n
Still, it\u2019s possible that the delta variant of the virus could reinfect those who contracted other strains.<\/p>\n
Deaths data<\/strong><\/p>\n In England only 18% of blood donors had antibodies showing prior infection, Public Health England said in a 12 August report.<\/p>\n That number jumped to 97% when those with antibodies from vaccinations were included. About 61% of England\u2019s population is fully inoculated, compared with 7.1% in South Africa.<\/p>\n Stipp said he based his assessment on the assumption that 90% of excess deaths reported by the South African Medical Research Council were due to Covid-19.<\/p>\n The SAMRC estimates South Africa\u2019s excess death number at 238,949 during the pandemic, compared with an official Covid-19 death toll of 78,377. The country\u2019s case fatality rate is 3%.<\/p>\n South Africa has the highest number of infections, with over 2.6 million confirmed, and deaths in Africa. It also has the most widespread testing and monitoring of causes of death.<\/p>\n In a 13 May presentation to Satsa, a tourism body, Stipp estimated that 62.1% of South Africans had contracted the virus – a number he\u2019s since revised.<\/p>\n The Eastern Cape, where 91.1% of the population was thought to have been infected, was the worst-hit province, and Gauteng, at 43.4%, and North West, at 35%, the least-affected.<\/p>\n The latter two provinces have posted record pandemic-era excess deaths in the country\u2019s third wave of infections, which is yet to fully subside.<\/p>\n Surveys of blood donors in January and May put South Africa\u2019s overall prior infection rate at 42.8%.<\/p>\n
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