The Central Energy Fund (CEF) has stressed that\u00a0the daily snapshots are not predictive<\/strong> and do not cover other potential changes like slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes, which the department determines.<\/p>\n The Department of Energy makes adjustments based on a review of the whole period. Furthermore, the outlook can change significantly before month-end.<\/p>\n Prices are affected by two main components \u2013 the rand\/dollar exchange rate and charges to international petroleum product costs, primarily driven by oil prices.<\/p>\n At mid-October, a weaker ZAR\/USD exchange rate is contributing to an under-recovery of around 23 cents per litre for all fuel types, with changes to international product prices adding to the pain.<\/p>\n Differences in price and refining costs for petrol and diesel create a divergent path on pricing, with diesel seeing an over-recovery of R1.17 per litre in product price changes, while petrol shows an over-recovery of 72 to 74 cents per litre.<\/p>\n Exchange rate<\/strong><\/p>\n The rand firmed on Friday and made a 3% weekly gain thanks to a softer dollar and higher commodity prices, while stocks inched up only slightly.<\/p>\n On a positive note, the local currency shrugged off mixed domestic economic data, including August manufacturing and mining numbers, which reinforced the view that the economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has been uneven across sectors.<\/p>\n Despite this strengthening, the rand is yet to recover the R14.50 level which it saw at the end of September, contributing to the under-recovery in fuel.<\/p>\n Oil prices<\/strong><\/p>\n Brent crude\u00a0surged as high as $85.10 a barrel on Friday (15 October), a price that would have seemed unthinkable just 18 months ago, when Covid halted global mobility and trashed demand.<\/p>\n Bloomberg<\/a> <\/strong>reported that the energy crisis is being fired by an underlying recovery in consumption – driven by road fuel, freight activity, and air travel.<\/p>\n With natural gas trading at close to $200 in per-barrel terms in Europe, the consensus among analysts is that oil demand globally will be boosted by a further half a percentage point as companies rush to secure any fuel that can be used as a substitute, from diesel to fuel oil to crude.<\/p>\n “The situation is tight, and OPEC is overtightening,” said Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant, turned hedge fund manager at Black Gold Investors.<\/p>\n “The broader energy problem is making things worse because you’re getting substitution on top of seasonal demand increases. This is quite an explosive situation.”<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/November-petrol-1.png\")
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