South Africa\u2019s strict measures to reduce the spread of the coronavirus may limit the severity of the pandemic\u2019s next wave, the government official running the national vaccination program said.<\/p>\n
Africa\u2019s most-industrialised nation has fully vaccinated about a third of the country\u2019s 40 million adults, and has kept in place prevention measures including a curfew, limits on gathering and mandatory use of masks in public. The percentage of those vaccinated is higher among older citizens.<\/p>\n
“If we continue with social distancing, we will still get a fourth wave, but it will be mild,\u201d Nicholas Crisp, the deputy director general of South Africa\u2019s Department of Health, said in an interview, citing mathematical modelling.<\/p>\n
“It could be a quarter of the first wave – minimal. People will get infected and get sick and have a lousy Christmas,” but deaths and hospitalizations will be lower, he said.<\/p>\n
The country has had the worst confirmed outbreak on the continent, with almost 3 million infections and about 90,000 deaths. A measure of excess deaths – or deaths exceeding the annual average – puts likely coronavirus fatalities at almost three times the official figure.<\/p>\n
Still, the abandoning of precautionary measures or the emergence of a new variant could change the outlook, Crisp said.<\/p>\n
“We are preparing for the worst.”<\/p>\n