The Omicron variant of Covid-19 is 4.2 times more transmissible in its early stage than delta, according to a study by a Japanese scientist who advises the country\u2019s health ministry, a finding likely to confirm fears about the new strain\u2019s contagiousness.<\/p>\n
Hiroshi Nishiura, a professor of health and environmental sciences at Kyoto University who specializes in mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, analyzed genome data available through November 26 in South Africans in Gauteng province.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe omicron variant transmits more, and escapes immunity built naturally and through vaccines more,\u201d Nishiura said in his findings, which were presented at a meeting of the health ministry\u2019s advisory panel on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
Concerns are swirling globally that omicron could deal the world a bigger blow than even delta, and the World Health Organisation has cautioned that it could fuel surges with \u201csevere consequences.\u201d But a jump in cases in South Africa in the wake of the variant\u2019s emergence hasn\u2019t yet overwhelmed hospitals, leading to some optimism that it may only cause mostly mild illness.<\/p>\n
Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE also said this week that a booster dose of their vaccine could fortify protection against the strain.<\/p>\n
Nishiura\u2019s study hasn\u2019t been peer-reviewed and published in a scientific journal. The new analysis was conducted using the same method he used in a July study published by the Eurosurveillance medical journal on delta\u2019s predicted dominance ahead of the Tokyo Olympics.<\/p>\n
Hundreds of researchers globally are racing to understand the new variant, which is the most differentiated strain yet among the five variants of concern identified by the WHO since the pandemic began.<\/p>\n
Cases in South Africa have rapidly increased to as many as nearly 20,000 a day since the country first reported omicron\u2019s discovery two weeks ago. The number of Covid cases in the nation had remained low in the preceding weeks, despite only 26% of the population being fully vaccinated, according to Bloomberg\u2019s Vaccine Tracker.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe vaccination rate was less than 30% and many people were probably naturally infected,\u201d Nishiura said. \u201cWe need to pay close attention to future trends to see if the same thing will happen in countries where mRNA vaccines are used at a high rate.\u201d<\/p>\n