{"id":546086,"date":"2021-12-11T11:09:39","date_gmt":"2021-12-11T09:09:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=546086"},"modified":"2021-12-11T11:09:39","modified_gmt":"2021-12-11T09:09:39","slug":"two-weeks-into-the-omicron-outbreak-what-we-know-and-where-to-from-here","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/lifestyle\/546086\/two-weeks-into-the-omicron-outbreak-what-we-know-and-where-to-from-here\/","title":{"rendered":"Two weeks into the Omicron outbreak: What we know and where to from here?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A little more than two weeks since omicron\u2019s discovery a lot has been learned about the latest coronavirus variant. A lot remains to be discovered.<\/p>\n<p>Early data from South Africa, the epicenter so far, shows that the virus appears to spread far faster than earlier strains but also doesn\u2019t appear to be causing severe disease.<\/p>\n<p>Nothing is definitive yet, so the world is still somewhat in the dark. With omicron cases doubling every few days in the U.K. and spreading in other places, policymakers and investors are grasping at\u00a0any clues.<\/p>\n<p>They had been moving toward the end of year with a little hope that the Covid era was shifting into a newer, more manageable phase.<\/p>\n<p>But now it\u2019s not clear yet if 2022 will succeed where 2021 has been\u00a0defeated: suppress the spread of the virus enough to stop the rolling infection waves and finally end social restrictions.<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Omicron-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-546088 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Omicron-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"814\" height=\"503\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Omicron-1.jpg 814w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Omicron-1-300x185.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Omicron-1-768x475.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 814px) 100vw, 814px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Initial lab studies indicate omicron is much more transmissible than even delta, the strain that spread rapidly across the globe, filling hospitals and boosting death rates.<\/p>\n<p>They also show that it can infect the vaccinated or those who have already been ill with Covid-19.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s not known yet is how it developed, and whether it will cause more severe disease in countries with older populations than South Africa.<\/p>\n<p>Also unclear is if it can out-compete delta in places where that version is dominant now, such as Europe and the U.S. New cases in South Africa, following a severe delta-led third wave, were negligible for weeks before omicron\u2019s unwelcome emergence.<\/p>\n<p>Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said this week that information so far points to a less severe mutation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe big challenge we\u2019re going to have is confirming that over the next two weeks,\u201d he said on his Osterhom Update podcast. \u201cFrom there, then we can figure out what does it mean in terms of the next leg of the pandemic for the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This is what we know so far:<\/p>\n<p><strong>How fast is omicron spreading?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In Gauteng, where South Africa\u2019s outbreak is currently centred, the reproduction rate &#8212; how fast the virus spreads &#8212; is over 3. That\u2019s the highest it\u2019s been and means that every infected person on average infects three more.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Cases in South Africa are rising at a near-record pace, and the rate of increase has outstripped South Africa\u2019s three earlier waves.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Omicron is 4.2 times more transmissible than delta, according to a\u00a0study\u00a0in Japan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The mutated virus may be spreading faster in England than in South Africa, with U.K. cases possibly topping 60,000 a day by Christmas,\u00a0according\u00a0to epidemiologist John Edmunds. On Friday, the U.K. reported almost 58,200 cases.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>How severe are infections?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>With the outbreak just a few weeks old it\u2019s too early to tell definitively, but doctors have reported patients with fatigue and headaches and little more. That\u2019s a big contrast to delta\u2019s racing pulse rates and respiratory problems.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>South Africa\u2019s three biggest private hospital operators say cases are much milder than in earlier waves. There are few people on oxygen or ventilators and only a slight uptick in deaths.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Currently, there are about 5,000 people with Covid in South African hospitals, a quarter of the peaks seen in the previous two waves.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Does it affect children differently from earlier variants?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Initial hospital admissions in South Africa saw a higher number of children under the age of 5 than previously.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Still, most only stay in hospital for a short time, and Health Minister Joe Phaahla says there are no reports of respiratory complications.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Do vaccines work?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yes and no<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Africa Health Resource Institute was the first to isolate the virus and\u00a0test\u00a0it against Pfizer Inc.\u2019s shot. Omicron is able to largely, but not completely, evade the antibodies generated in response to the inoculation, the research showed. Pfizer\u2019s own\u00a0study\u00a0backed that up.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>But data from South African hospitals in the municipal area of Tshwane presented on Dec. 3 showed that 68% of coronavirus hospital admissions were in people under 40. That compares with individuals over 50 accounting for 66.1% of hospitalizations during the first weeks of the third wave. South Africans over 60 are about twice as likely to have been vaccinated than those under 34.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Where did it come from?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There are three theories.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The first is the virus\u00a0mutated\u00a0in someone who was immunosuppressed and harbored the pathogen for a long time, allowing it to change and then infect others. South Africa has 8.2 million people carrying HIV, which causes the immune system disease AIDS.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The second is that the coronavirus crossed back into an animal, mutated, and then re-infected a human.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The third is that it developed by circulating somewhere with little genetic sequencing and not much access to healthcare. It was then picked up in South Africa, where sequencing of samples is comparatively common. Some of the world\u2019s weakest health systems are in Africa.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>So where to from here?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Depends who you listen to.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Richard Friedland, the chief executive officer of South Africa\u2019s biggest private hospital group, Netcare Ltd. is optimistic.\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cI actually think there is a silver lining here and this may signal the end of Covid-19, with it attenuating itself to such an extent that it\u2019s highly contagious, but doesn\u2019t cause severe disease,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s early days, but I\u2019m less panicked. It feels different to me on the ground.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The World Health Organization is remaining cautious for now given so many unknowns, and the concern that any variant is a risk.\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cIf they\u2019re allowed to spread unchecked, even though they\u2019re not individually more virulent or more lethal, they generate more cases, put pressure on the health system and more people die,\u201d said Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO emergencies program. \u201cWe should hope for the best outcome, but in this particular case, hope is not a strategy. We need to be very careful on making any final determinations on severity.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/lifestyle\/545932\/the-travel-restrictions-on-south-africa-right-now-two-weeks-after-news-of-the-omicron-variant-broke\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The travel restrictions on South Africa right now \u2013 two weeks after news of the Omicron variant broke<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A little more than two weeks since omicron\u2019s discovery a lot has been learned about the latest coronavirus variant. A lot remains to be discovered.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":545774,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9876],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-546086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lifestyle","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546086","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=546086"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546086\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":546090,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546086\/revisions\/546090"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/545774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=546086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=546086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=546086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}