A South African study from the epicenter of the world\u2019s omicron surge offers a tantalizing hint that the acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic may be ending.<\/p>\n
The infection wave moved with \u201cunprecedented speed\u201d and caused much milder illness than earlier strains, a study of patients infected with Covid-19 at a large hospital in the South African city where the first outbreak of the omicron variant was recorded showed.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf this pattern continues and is repeated globally, we are likely to see a complete decoupling of case and death rates,\u201d the researchers said. That suggests \u201comicron may be a harbinger of the end of the epidemic phase of the Covid pandemic, ushering in its endemic phase.\u201d<\/p>\n
The study at the Steve Biko Academic Hospital Complex analyzed records of 466 patients from the current wave and 3,976 from previous bouts of infection. Researchers that worked on it included Fareed Abdullah, a director at the council and an infectious disease doctor at the hospital.<\/p>\n
South Africa, the first country to have a major omicron outbreak, is being closely watched to see how infections from the variant may pan out globally. The comparatively young age of the country\u2019s population and those hospitalized in the latest wave could also mask the severity of disease caused by the variant, the researchers said.<\/p>\n
Still, the data add to hope among researchers that concern over omicron\u2019s high transmission rates is being tempered by the mildness of the disease it appears to cause and the limited number of deaths that result from its infections.<\/p>\n
Less death<\/strong><\/p>\n South African hospitalizations have crested at half of their record in previous waves. Weekly excess deaths, a measure of the number of deaths compared with a historical average, peaked at less than a fifth of their record during the pandemic.<\/p>\n If other countries have similar experiences, that may help move the pandemic to an endemic phase, where widespread exposure gives more people immunity resulting in less serious disease. Still, the virus could mutate further into a strain that causes more severe disease and more easily evades antibodies produced from prior infections or vaccinations.<\/p>\n The study showed that just 4.5% of patients with Covid-19 died during their hospital stay in the current wave compared with an average of 21% in earlier waves, according to the South African Medical Research Council\u2019s website. Fewer people were admitted to intensive-care units, and hospital stays were \u201csignificantly shorter.\u201d<\/p>\n Asymptomatic disease<\/strong><\/p>\n The rate of admissions climbed rapidly but began to decline within 33 days of the first analyzed, the study said. A snapshot of patients in the hospital on Dec. 14 and 15 showed that almost two-thirds of those infected with Covid-19 had been admitted for other reasons.<\/p>\n \u201cThis phenomenon has not been observed to this extent before in the Steve Biko Academic Hospital Complex or anywhere in South Africa,\u201d the study said. It \u201cmost likely reflects high levels of asymptomatic disease in the community with omicron infection,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n It also found:<\/p>\n The findings \u201cwere comparable to city-wide trends when cases and admissions from all public and private hospitals reported,\u201d the researchers said. There was \u201ca lower admission per case ratio, lower death rate and lower rates of admission to the ICU compared to previous waves.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
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