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<\/a><\/p>\nIt\u2019s inevitable that governments will eventually need to regard Covid as one of many public health challenges that can be managed \u2014 rather than one requiring the urgency and focus devoted since early 2020.<\/p>\n
The appetite for economically damaging lockdowns is long gone. Vaccines are protecting swathes of the population, and there\u2019s even hope that omicron, with its frenetic spread and less powerful punch, may be hastening the path to the pandemic\u2019s exit.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe probably are starting to see a transition phase toward this becoming an endemic disease, which doesn\u2019t mean that we have to stop being very prudent,\u201d Spain\u2019s deputy prime minister, Nadia Calvino, told Bloomberg Television.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut it does signal that we should take measures that are very different to the ones we had to take two years ago.\u201d<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just governments hoping 2022 is the year Covid can finally move to the back burner of public discourse. A weary public is also desperate to escape, and Internet searches for the term \u201cendemic\u201d have jumped in recent weeks.<\/p>\n
Endemic would mean the disease is still circulating, but at a lower, more predictable rate \u2014 and with fewer people landing in hospitals.<\/p>\n
The term sometimes means a disease is limited to a specific region, but that doesn\u2019t have to be the case with Covid, just as the flu regularly crisscrosses the globe. Seasonal patterns can happen, too, with higher cases in winter, as well as local outbreaks above the expected norm.<\/p>\n
At the least, there are reasons to hope that the pandemic\u2019s grip is loosening. The world has more tools than before, from rapid tests to the ability to update and mass produce vaccines, plus rising levels of immunity through inoculation and earlier bouts of Covid.<\/p>\n
While antibodies may dwindle, or even fail to stop infections from new variants, the other major weapon of the immune system \u2014 T cells \u2014 appears to be robust enough to prevent serious disease.<\/p>\n
Multiple studies, meanwhile, point to omicron as being less severe than previous strains. Beyond that, it appears to already be burning out in some places. The rate of new infections in South Africa is falling after December\u2019s surge, while hospital admissions in the UK are leveling off.<\/p>\n
Such evidence is \u201cencouraging in some ways, but we have to stay very vigilant,\u201d said Noubar Afeyan, co-founder of Moderna Inc.<\/p>\n
The vaccine maker is preparing an omicron-specific booster that could be ready to enter trials within weeks, he said. Reaching the endemic phase is possible this year, but there\u2019s \u201cstill uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n
The World Health Organisation, for one, is urging caution. Despite the global vaccine push — now approaching 10 billion doses administered – there are massive gaps. More than 85% of the population of Africa hasn\u2019t received any dose, while 36 WHO member states haven\u2019t even reached 10% coverage.<\/p>\n It\u2019s even an issue \u2014 albeit to a lesser degree \u2014 in some developed countries. Germany still has 3 million people over the age of 60 that haven\u2019t been fully vaccinated, in most instances by personal choice.<\/p>\n Uncontrolled spread of Covid would therefore lead to too many otherwise avoidable deaths, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said Friday. \u201cThere is still no reason to sound the all-clear,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n In the US, it\u2019s also too soon to start talking about the next phase. While countries, where Omicron spiked earlier, are seeing some numbers ease, the US isn\u2019t there yet, according to Chris Beyrer, a professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.<\/p>\n It\u2019s also possible that people infected with omicron aren\u2019t building up much immunity in the face of what\u2019s to come. The harder-hitting delta could surge back, or combine with omicron to create a new hybrid.<\/p>\n \u201cWe still have a virus that\u2019s evolving quite quickly,\u201d said Catherine Smallwood, senior emergency officer at WHO Europe. \u201cIt may become endemic in due course, but pinning that down to 2022 is a little bit difficult at this stage.\u201d<\/p>\n Even without an official declaration downgrading the health emergency, governments may soon start behaving as if that were the case. While China\u2019s zero-Covid policy is an outlier, most countries are keen to step back from intrusive measures, with many citing low fatalities relative to previous waves.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n