Numbers from the latest BankservAfrica Economic Transaction Index (BETI) show that South Africa’s economy is stagnating, according to economist, Mike Sch\u00fcssler.<\/p>\n
The BETI is a broad overview of current economic trends over a broad range of sectors, making use of economic transactions as captured by BankservAfrica.<\/p>\n
The latest value of the BETI stood at R654.3 billion which, in nominal terms, was up 6.6% on last year.<\/p>\n
According to Brad Gillis, CEO of regulated products at BankservAfrica, the quarter-on-quarter growth in the BETI is the same as the year-on-year growth at 0.8%, while the month-on-month increase is only 0.1%.<\/p>\n
“This is the highest number obtained this year, but on balance it is mainly the result of higher inflation rather than actual growth,” Gillis said.<\/p>\n
“The actual number of transactions in the BETI (83.1 million) is the highest since Christmas 2013. Although this was up by exactly 5% on last year, it shows that the value of consumers’ transactions increased with less than inflation over the last year.”<\/p>\n
“South Africans were probably forced to cut back on some expenditure,” Gillis said.<\/p>\n
According to chief economist at economists.co.za, Mike Sch\u00fcssler, the numbers from the BETI are an indication of a stagnating economy.<\/p>\n
The South African economy appears to be \u201cfalling asleep at the wheel\u201d, Sch\u00fcssler said, adding that, broadly speaking, the economy has been in a slow growth or stagnating mode for about 18 months and is, at best, continuing along this path.<\/p>\n
Factors impacting this trend include the “most damaging strike action in 20 years” – as well as consumer and producer prices rising faster than anticipated.<\/p>\n
“Along with slightly higher interest rates, this is curbing consumers’ enthusiasm to spend.”<\/p>\n
According to Sch\u00fcssler, one hopeful sign is that the economy is still growing despite the challenges.<\/p>\n
“Nevertheless, the economy is inching forward and the number of economic transactions is, on the whole, an indication that the South African economy is still fighting against any possibility of a recession.”<\/p>\n
“Many are apprehensive that if current labour market outcomes remain divisive, one would have to pencil in further weaknesses in the actual BETI going forward.”<\/p>\n
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