![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/Heavyweight.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nGas hit \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n One of the biggest impacts so far has been on Europe\u2019s gas markets. Geopolitical tensions have been amplified by already limited supplies from Russia and below-average stockpiles, with prices in the region jumping nearly fourfold in the past year.<\/p>\n A full-blown conflict could disrupt the massive volumes that Russia sends to Europe, about a third of which typically comes through Ukraine. Sanctions could hit trade and keep a new pipeline, Nord Stream 2, from bringing Russian gas to Europe. That could all have a big impact on refilling inventories in the summer, making next winter difficult as well. Prices could surge even higher, and send Europe\u2019s economy reeling. Russia would also lose huge amounts of revenue.<\/p>\n Still, many think it\u2019s unlikely gas supplies would stop, or even be cut significantly. Russia plans to continue uninterrupted supplies of gas to global markets, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said in Qatar, where he\u2019s attending a gas forum.<\/p>\n Food and fertiliser at risk<\/strong><\/p>\n A major casualty could be even higher food prices. Ukraine and Russia together are heavyweights in global wheat, corn and sunflower oil trade, leaving buyers from Asia to Africa and the Middle East vulnerable to more expensive bread and meat if supplies are disrupted.<\/p>\n That would add to food-commodity costs that are already the highest in a decade.<\/p>\n When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 wheat prices jumped even though shipments weren\u2019t substantially affected. Russia and Ukraine\u2019s share of world exports has increased since, with nations like Egypt and Turkey reliant on the Black Sea breadbasket.<\/p>\n So far, cargoes are still flowing freely and there\u2019s\u00a0no indication\u00a0of significant disruptions. But should that happen, global markets already grappling with shrinking grain stockpiles could see further shortfalls.<\/p>\n Russia is also one of the world\u2019s biggest exporters of all three major groups of fertilizers. Any cuts in supply may result in a surge in already high nutrient prices, affecting crop yields and cause further food inflation.<\/p>\n Metals crunch<\/strong><\/p>\n Traders are also weighing the risk of disruption to Russian exports of metals including aluminum, nickel, palladium and steel, even as analysts stress that targeting Russian producers directly with sanctions would be a major own-goal for the West.<\/p>\n US sanctions against United Co. Rusal International PJSC sparked turmoil in the aluminum market in 2018, and policymakers may not want to risk a repeat. Rusal\u2019s shares have plunged in Hong Kong in recent days.<\/p>\n But should Russia get cut off from the Swift international payment system as part of any sanctions, it would slow down the flow of funds and hit exports. Any disruptions to gas flows could also exacerbate problems for metal producers in Europe who\u2019ve been cutting output in response to high energy prices.<\/p>\n Even short-lived disruptions could have an outsized impact at a time when manufacturers are already facing critical shortages of metals from aluminum to zinc. The fallout could be particularly dramatic in the palladium market, where Russia accounts for about 40% of global supply.<\/p>\n The country is less dominant in base metals, but remains one of the world\u2019s leading suppliers, with JPMorgan estimating that it accounts for about 4%-6% of global refined production of copper, aluminum and nickel.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n