{"id":570572,"date":"2022-03-23T08:48:37","date_gmt":"2022-03-23T06:48:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=570572"},"modified":"2022-03-23T08:48:37","modified_gmt":"2022-03-23T06:48:37","slug":"oil-set-for-150-on-supply-shock-says-veteran-trader","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/570572\/oil-set-for-150-on-supply-shock-says-veteran-trader\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil set for $150 on supply shock, says veteran trader"},"content":{"rendered":"

Brent oil will likely hit $150 a barrel this year as the supply shock from the war in Europe coincides with resilient demand from people keen to travel after the virus, according to veteran commodities trader Doug King.<\/p>\n

The world has few options to pump more crude, and there\u2019s little sign that consumption is under threat, said King, who runs the $425 million Merchant Commodity Fund, which returned 28% in the first two months of this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cJet fuel demand is going to come back, travel is going to come back,\u201d he said in an interview on Friday. \u201cI think people have money. They\u2019re going to go spend it, so I don\u2019t see the demand destruction at these prices.\u201d<\/p>\n

Oil was already elevated before Russia invaded Ukraine as supply struggled to keep up with the demand rebound from the pandemic. The ensuing financial penalties on the country, one of the biggest crude producers, and self-sanctioning by much of the industry saw Brent – the global benchmark – flirt with $140 a barrel in early March, although it\u2019s now eased back to near $115.<\/p>\n

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Supply losses due to the war in Europe are likely to dwarf any demand destruction, as people want to start traveling more as soon as they get the opportunity, according to King. The floor for Brent is now about $100, he said.<\/p>\n

The Merchant fund returned 74% in 2021, placing King among a group of hedge fund managers, including Pierre Andurand, who made large profits from the boom in raw materials last year.<\/p>\n

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index is already up 26% this year, with King seeing a lot more opportunity in raw materials, which he says are skewed hard to the upside as supply chains, in general, are still \u201cabsolutely stressed.\u201d<\/p>\n

The huge ramifications from last year\u2019s global gas crunch on other fuel sources and industries such as fertilizer and manufacturing are only likely to filter down over the next six to 12 months, with the war making the situation \u201cfar more explosive,\u201d he said. Exploration for new oil resources is also constrained.<\/p>\n

“It isn\u2019t like in 2007-08, where you saw explorers everywhere, you saw the multinationals going for fields and developing this and developing that,\u201d he said, adding that ESG mandates had changed things. \u201cCommodity markets that don\u2019t react to price signals mean it\u2019s pretty precarious.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Read: The rand is on a positive run \u2013 here\u2019s where it could be heading in the next few months<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Brent oil will likely hit $150 a barrel this year as the supply shock from the war in Europe coincides with resilient demand from people keen to travel after the virus, according to veteran commodities trader Doug King.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":564398,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-570572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570572","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=570572"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570572\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":570576,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570572\/revisions\/570576"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/564398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=570572"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=570572"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=570572"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}