{"id":579688,"date":"2022-04-22T07:08:18","date_gmt":"2022-04-22T05:08:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=579688"},"modified":"2022-04-22T07:25:34","modified_gmt":"2022-04-22T05:25:34","slug":"morgan-stanley-raises-oil-forecast-to-130-a-barrel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/579688\/morgan-stanley-raises-oil-forecast-to-130-a-barrel\/","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley raises oil forecast to $130 a barrel"},"content":{"rendered":"

Morgan Stanley increased its third- and fourth-quarter price forecasts for global benchmark Brent crude by $10 a barrel due to a greater-than-expected supply deficit driven by Russia and Iran.<\/p>\n

The bank raised its third quarter estimate to $130 a barrel and predicted a supply deficit of about 1 million barrels a day persisting throughout the year, according to a note dated April 21.<\/p>\n

While oil markets have short-term demand headwinds, they are outweighed by supply issues, it added.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley increased its forecast for daily Russian crude and condensate production losses to 2 million barrels, up from 1 million barrels, because of a widespread boycott of its products following Moscow\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The war is nearing its third month despite diplomatic efforts for a cease-fire.<\/p>\n

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Russian production has already fallen by about 900,000 barrels a day in the first half of April, earlier than expected, Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant said. The bank added that there\u2019s a \u201chigh risk\u201d the European Union will enact an import embargo on Russian crude.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley scaled back its assumption for returning Iranian supply, citing the lengthy negotiations without a nuclear deal being agreed. The bank had expected flows to climb by about 1 million barrels a day between mid- and end-2022, but has lowered that forecast to 500,000 barrels a day.<\/p>\n

The likelihood of an agreement is now 50\/50, the bank said.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley cut its oil demand growth forecast to 2.7 million barrels a day this year from 3.4 million barrels a day. In the short term, the market is contending with negative GDP revisions, the effects of China\u2019s Covid Zero policy and a large release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.<\/p>\n

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Read: Here\u2019s why the rand is taking a beating right now<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Morgan Stanley increased its third- and fourth-quarter price forecasts for global benchmark Brent crude by $10 a barrel due to a greater-than-expected supply deficit driven by Russia and Iran.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":564398,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[26,2890],"class_list":["post-579688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-headline","tag-morgan-stanley"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/579688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=579688"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/579688\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":579714,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/579688\/revisions\/579714"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/564398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=579688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=579688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=579688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}