{"id":580194,"date":"2022-04-25T08:48:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-25T06:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=580194"},"modified":"2022-04-25T08:48:00","modified_gmt":"2022-04-25T06:48:00","slug":"south-africa-benefits-as-russias-war-turbocharges-the-worlds-addiction-to-coal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/580194\/south-africa-benefits-as-russias-war-turbocharges-the-worlds-addiction-to-coal\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa benefits as Russia&#8217;s war turbocharges the world\u2019s addiction to coal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In Germany and Italy, coal-fired power plants that were once decommissioned are now being considered for a second life.<\/p>\n<p>In South Africa, more coal-laden ships are embarking on what\u2019s typically a quiet route around the Cape of Good Hope toward Europe. Coal-burning in the US is in the midst of its biggest revival in a decade, while China is reopening\u00a0shuttered mines and planning new ones.<\/p>\n<p>The world\u2019s addiction to coal, a fuel many thought would soon be on the way out, is now\u00a0stronger than ever.<\/p>\n<p>Demand has been on the rise since last year amid a natural gas shortage and as electricity use surged\u00a0after\u00a0pandemic restrictions were rolled back. But Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine turbocharged the coal market, setting off a domino effect that\u2019s leaving power producers scrambling for\u00a0supply and pushing\u00a0prices to record levels.<\/p>\n<p>The boom in the world&#8217;s dirtiest fossil fuel has huge implications for the global economy.<\/p>\n<p>The higher prices will continue to feed into rising inflation. But even with the recent surge, analysts say that coal is still one of the relatively cheapest fuels.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s making it more critical for power supplies at a time when coal-burning also remains the biggest single obstacle in the battle against climate change. Meanwhile, miners are struggling to dig up any additional tons as utilities around the world keep demanding more, setting the stage for the next phase of the global energy crisis.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen you\u2019re trying to balance decarbonization and energy security, everyone knows which one wins: Keeping the lights on,\u201d said Steve Hulton, senior vice president for coal markets at market-research company Rystad Energy in Sydney. \u201cThat\u2019s what keeps people in power, and stops people from rioting in the streets.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Coal-comeback.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-580198 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Coal-comeback.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"814\" height=\"522\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Coal-comeback.jpg 814w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Coal-comeback-300x192.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Coal-comeback-768x493.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 814px) 100vw, 814px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In 2021, the world\u00a0generated more electricity from coal than ever before, with an increase of 9% from the previous year,\u00a0according to the International Energy Agency.<\/p>\n<p>For 2022, total coal consumption \u2014 for generating power, making steel and other industrial uses \u2014 is expected to rise by almost 2% to a record of just above 8 billion metric tons and remain there through at least 2024.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAll evidence indicates a widening gap between political ambitions and targets on one side and the realities of the current energy system on the other,\u201d the IEA said, estimating that carbon-dioxide emissions from coal in 2024 will be at least 3 billion tons higher than in a scenario reaching net-zero by 2050.<\/p>\n<p>Coal\u2019s story is inextricably linked with natural gas, often promoted\u00a0as the cleaner-burning alternative.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Europe\u2019s energy crisis and the coal comeback<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As the world began to emerge from the pandemic in mid-2021, power demand surged as stores and factories reopened. But Europe, which had been leading the global charge away from coal, faced an unprecedented crunch for electricity and a shortage of natural gas.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, renewable power was\u00a0tight in the region and in some other parts other world. The confluence of events\u00a0sparked blackouts in some regions and sent gas prices to extremes around the world, ushering in the energy crisis.<\/p>\n<p>Suddenly, coal was back in vogue as a less-expensive alternative. Thermal coal, the type burned by power plants, is one of the cheapest fuel sources \u201con the planet,\u201d with\u00a0costs at about $15 per million British thermal units, according to a report dated April 1 from\u00a0Bank of America.\u00a0That compares with about $25 for crude oil and the global price of $35 for natural gas, the report said.<\/p>\n<p>The European Union, which has some of the world\u2019s most ambitious climate targets, saw its coal use jump 12% last year, the first increase since 2017 \u2014 albeit, that gain was from low 2020 levels.<\/p>\n<p>Coal consumption climbed 17% in the US, and also rose in Asia, Africa and Latin America. India and China, which dominate global markets, were also big drivers for increasing world demand.<\/p>\n<p>Just a few months ago, negotiators arrived in Glasgow for the COP26 climate conference\u00a0optimistic\u00a0they could \u201cconsign coal to history.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Instead, the climate talks ended in November with a\u00a0\u00a0watering down of the language on the use of coal.<\/p>\n<p>China, the US and India are the three biggest polluters, and all three have now pledged to zero out their emissions in the decades ahead. Yet India and China pursued last-ditch interventions to soften language on coal usage, and the US played a role in accepting that weaker position, calling into question the nations\u2019 short-term commitment to curb coal.<\/p>\n<p>And that was all before the recent\u00a0further revival for the market.<\/p>\n<p>The IEA issued its annual demand outlook back in December. The agency now plans to issue a mid-year revision in July \u2014\u00a0its first time ever to do so \u2014\u00a0to analyze the impact of the war. In all likelihood, demand will be higher than the December forecast as Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine sets off a chain reaction in the global energy markets that further thrusts coal into the spotlight.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Can the EU give up Russian energy?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Europe is desperate for a way to reduce its reliance on Russia, a key supplier of fossil fuels. The EU is moving to ban Russian coal while also cranking up its overall use\u00a0of the fuel as it seeks to simultaneously decrease its use of\u00a0Russian natural gas.<\/p>\n<p>Europe\u2019s move is centered on the notion that it will be able to pay more for non-Russian coal supplies than other buyers, a gamble that\u2019s driving up global markets and could price out developing countries that may face shortages.<\/p>\n<p>To help secure energy next winter, the German government is considering working with utilities like RWE AG to reactivate decommissioned coal-fired power plants and delay decommissioning of active facilities.<\/p>\n<p>In Denmark, Orsted A\/S is shoring up coal supplies to use instead of biomass, because supplies of the carbon-neutral wood pellets have been disrupted by the war. And\u00a0Britain is\u00a0exploring\u00a0options to bolster energy security, including keeping open\u00a0Drax\u00a0Group Plc coal units.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s the last hurrah for coal in Europe,\u201d said Emma Champion, head of regional energy transitions at BloombergNEF.<\/p>\n<p>Even before Europe\u2019s risky move, coal supplies were already precarious.\u00a0 A power plant in Germany had to\u00a0shut down\u00a0last year when it ran out of coal. Shortages also led to power\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-10-11\/indian-states-hit-by-power-blackouts-as-coal-supply-still-tight\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">outag<\/a>e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-10-11\/indian-states-hit-by-power-blackouts-as-coal-supply-still-tight\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">s<\/a>\u00a0in India and\u00a0China, which together\u00a0account for about two-thirds of global coal consumption.<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Power-giant.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-580202 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Power-giant.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"814\" height=\"482\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Power-giant.jpg 814w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Power-giant-300x178.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Power-giant-768x455.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 814px) 100vw, 814px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Coal\u2019s price surge<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Prices are hitting stratospheric levels. Futures prices for the Australian benchmark, which rarely breaks $100 a metric ton, spiked to $280 in October as utilities scoured the planet for fuel. It fell back, slightly, as relatively mild winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere eased some demand for power. But when Russia invaded Ukraine, supply concerns drove prices all the way to $440, an all-time high.<\/p>\n<p>Europe\u2019s market followed the same pattern, and even in the U.S., which is driven more by domestic demand, prices\u00a0reached\u00a0a 13-year high this month.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe coal supply chain just wasn\u2019t ready for that kind of shock,\u201d said Xizhou Zhou, managing director for global power and\u00a0renewables at S&amp;P Global.<\/p>\n<p>As coal grows in importance, supplies are unlikely to follow suit.<\/p>\n<p>Miners are still concerned about long-term demand prospects, especially as the United Nations reiterates its view that the world needs to phase out the fuel. The report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released this month showed that coal-burning needs to hit zero by 2050 to reach the goal of limiting global heating to 1.5\u00b0 Celsius (2.7\u00b0 Fahrenheit).<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTo say in the long run there\u2019s no demand for your product, but in the short run, can you please ramp it up \u2014 that\u2019s a lot to ask of a supply chain,\u201d said Ethan Zindler, head of Americas research at BloombergNEF.<\/p>\n<p>Adding to the chaos, policymakers and companies in Japan and South Korea are also\u00a0making moves\u00a0to curb Russian coal imports. That will leave even more of the world looking for alternatives to the 187 million tons that Russia\u00a0exported\u00a0to power plants last year, which equals about 18% of the world\u2019s thermal coal trade.<\/p>\n<p>It won\u2019t be easy to replace.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Global supply issues<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Global production still hasn\u2019t rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. Miners have been hobbled by weather problems, labour shortages and transportation issues, as well as a lack of investment in new capacity.<\/p>\n<p>Indonesia, the top shipper of coal for power stations,\u00a0halted\u00a0exports of coal early this year to secure domestic supplies. Producers in Australia, another key exporter, have\u00a0flagged they have limited ability to raise sales.<\/p>\n<p>State-owned Coal India, the world\u2019s biggest miner, is limiting\u00a0deliveries to industrial users to prioritize power plants in a bid to avert blackouts for millions of households. Exports from South Africa\u2019s Richards Bay Coal Terminal fell to 58.7 million tons in 2021, the lowest in 25 years.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe global seaborne coal market remains very tight this year,\u201d said Shirley Zhang, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie. \u201cSo finding alternative supply would be extremely challenging regardless of high prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As global coal supplies tighten and prices rise, emerging-market nations may no longer be able to afford to procure the fuel to keep their economies running. Cash-strapped countries in South Asia, like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, are particularly exposed to price shocks\u00a0and are already grappling with energy shortages.<\/p>\n<p>To be sure, if coal\u2019s price surge continues, that could in the longer term further encourage countries to wean themselves off the fuel and replace it with more renewables. And the larger geopolitical tensions brought on by Russia\u2019s war are bolstering the argument that adding more electric vehicles to roads and installing additional wind turbines and solar panels can boost energy independence.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The impact of China\u2019s fuel demand<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>China is also in the midst of a fossil-fuel production boom. Growing coal output has been an obsession of Beijing\u2019s since a shortage of the fuel caused last year\u2019s widespread power outages.<\/p>\n<p>The nation mines half the world\u2019s coal, and output has been rising just as a recent new spat of pandemic lockdowns slowed economic activity and curbed power demand. But it\u2019s unclear whether the production surges are sustainable, with a top industry official saying recently that the push has reached its limits.<\/p>\n<p>For now, the most-immediate dynamic is a global fight over available coal supplies to avoid power shortages.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t know if I even have an extra 200 tons,\u201d said Ernie Thrasher, chief executive officer of Xcoal Energy &amp; Resources, the top U.S. exporter. \u201cThere physically isn\u2019t the production capacity.\u201d<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/580140\/bleak-load-shedding-forecast-for-south-africa\/\">Bleak load shedding forecast for South Africa<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In Germany and Italy, coal-fired power plants that were once decommissioned are now being considered for a second life.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":527802,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-580194","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580194","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=580194"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580194\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":580200,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580194\/revisions\/580200"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/527802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=580194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=580194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=580194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}