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<\/a>\nFor Europe, much will hinge on the weather over the coming months. Small swings in temperature can radically change power needs. In France, a 1-degree Celsius drop typically boosts power demand by about 2,400 megawatts, the output of about two of its 56 nuclear reactors.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf we have a really extreme winter, it would have as deleterious an impact on our grid as it did for Texas,\u201d said Adam Bell, a consultant who previously led energy strategy at the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. \u201cAnything people can do now to lower their demand will help the overall cause.\u201d<\/p>\n
The European Commission on Wednesday proposed a regulation calling on governments to cut overall electricity usage by 10%, as well as a 5% mandatory reduction during peak hours.<\/p>\n
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc said in a report that \u201cthe more reductions we see, especially in summer, in gas consumption, the less likely Europe is to face blackouts.\u201d<\/p>\n
But some government aid measures may add to the problem. Price caps aimed at helping consumers and businesses cope with soaring prices reduce incentives to lower consumption.<\/p>\n
Other factors are also at play. France, traditionally Europe\u2019s largest electricity exporter, may have to import large amounts of power this winter as Electricite de France SA grapples with the reduced reliability of its aging nuclear fleet.<\/p>\n
A dry summer has affected hydro power across Europe, including in Norway, also traditionally a large exporter.<\/p>\n
If the crisis escalates, cutting power to homes is a last resort, and there are a range of options that authorities will take first.<\/p>\n
The easiest have already started. Governments have recommended turning down thermostats and taking shorter showers, and are reducing their own consumption by lowering temperatures in public pools and turning off outside lighting on public buildings at night.<\/p>\n
The usual next step is for large energy-intensive companies, many of whom already have pre-arranged agreements with governments, to reduce usage or shut down.<\/p>\n
After that, the choices become even more unpalatable.<\/p>\n
In France\u2019s case, the Ecowatt system allows people to monitor forecasts for power supply and demand days ahead, with three levels: green, orange and red. If the grid operator expects the situation to become critical, it will issue an alert the evening before.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn rare cases where all electricity needs cannot be covered, local, controlled outages lasting a maximum of 2 hours could be organized,\u201d the EcoWatt website says.<\/p>\n
Scheduled power losses, while bad, are still better than uncontrolled blackouts because of unrelenting strains on supplies. They allow operators to limit outages, rather than be plunged into a chaotic situation where it takes days to get everything back up and running.<\/p>\n
There are similar processes in place elsewhere. If the emergency plan is triggered in the UK, it would first ask households and industries to try to save energy. The next step would be for large energy-intensive companies to shut down.<\/p>\n
Recent evidence from California suggests such measures work. On Sept. 6, the state\u2019s Office of Emergency Services declared its highest grid emergency level, then sent a text alert: \u201cTurn off or reduce nonessential power if health allows, now until 9 p.m.\u201d<\/p>\n
Within minutes, power usage dropped. The emergency was later canceled without any blackouts.<\/p>\n
France has published its own estimates in an effort to encourage compliance with such requests. If every household were to turn off one light bulb, that would save as much as 600 megawatts, the equivalent of the consumption of 600,000 inhabitants.<\/p>\n
\u201cOverall, the message to reduce demand across Europe now doesn\u2019t seem to be hitting home yet,\u201d said Simone Tagliapietra, fellow at Bruegel think tank in Brussels. \u201cJust walk around our cities \u2014 you still see supermarkets closed at night with lights on. We are simply not there yet.\u201d<\/p>\n
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