Statistician-General Pali Lehohla on Monday shied away from speculation that South Africa’s economy may have shrunk further during the second quarter of this year.<\/p>\n
“A number of commentators are asking the question — after the negative growth in GDP [for the first quarter of 2014] of minus 0.6 percent — are we likely to see… a recession?<\/p>\n
“Well, on the 26th of August we’ll be releasing another GDP figure, and then we’ll see,” he told reporters in Pretoria, adding that they should “watch this space”.<\/p>\n
There has been speculation that South Africa’s economy might be heading for a second quarter of contracting real gross domestic product, widely seen as an indicator that a country’s economy is in recession.<\/p>\n
Asked at the briefing to give some prediction for the second quarter, deputy director-general for economic statistics, Joe de Beer, said Statistics SA did not yet have all the data to do so.<\/p>\n
“It’s very early days, and I think we would be reliant for the GDP calculations for estimates for the months of April, May and June.<\/p>\n
“We don’t have all of those data points yet, but I think later this week, when we start looking at the trade statistics to be published, it will also give us a good feel for where this is going to end up,” he said.<\/p>\n
Lehohla on Monday tabled figures highlighting the sluggish recovery of South Africa’s mining and manufacturing sectors in the wake of the 2008\/09 recession.<\/p>\n
The figures were a repeat of those issued in Stats SA’s last monthly release, tabled last week.<\/p>\n
They highlight the impact strikes and industrial unrest have had on the country’s mining and manufacturing sectors.<\/p>\n
Among other things, they show that between June 2012 and March this year a total of 48,000 jobs were lost in the mining sector, a decrease of nine percent.<\/p>\n
Further between September 2006 and March this year, the number of employees in the manufacturing sector decreased by 14 percent, a total of 188,000 employees.<\/p>\n
Asked why he was repeating the data, Lehohla said the strikes and industrial unrest experienced around the country were cause for concern.<\/p>\n
“Releasing these numbers in the context of a restive industrial environment helps to energise the discussion that society needs to have.<\/p>\n
“Government must engage these numbers, and look at them, analyse them and feed them into the Nedlac [National Economic, Development and Labour Council], so that there is more peaceful industrial relations.”<\/p>\n
The numbers could provide a basis for such discussion.<\/p>\n
“What is new here is an effort to inform better,” he said.<\/p>\n
South Africa\u2019s economic champion<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n South Africa\u2019s economy slows to a crawl<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n