A cloud is hanging over South African President Cyril Ramaphosa\u2019s political future heading into governing party elections next month as he confronts internal dissent, an energy crisis that\u2019s stoking public anger and a scandal over a theft at his game farm.<\/p>\n
The former labour union leader this week secured the vast majority of nominations for the top job in the African National Congress, and his political adviser got the most backing for the treasurer post. But his preferred candidates lagged in the races for deputy president, chairman and other top positions because they didn\u2019t resonate with the ANC\u2019s rank-and-file, according to senior party members.<\/p>\n
The contests will ultimately be decided by thousands of delegates who will attend the ANC\u2019s elective conference in Johannesburg from Dec. 16-20. If Ramaphosa, 70, does retain his ANC post as expected, he\u2019ll likely be its presidential candidate in national elections scheduled for 2024.<\/p>\n
Support for the 110-year-old ANC, which has held power since South Africa\u2019s first multiracial elections in 1994, has lagged because of its failure to tackle power cuts, rampant unemployment and shoddy management of towns and cities. While Ramaphosa is seen as the party\u2019s best option to lead its campaign, his adversaries could move to oust him should it perform badly or if he fails to end the blackouts, said the party members who spoke on condition of anonymity because they aren\u2019t authorized to comment.<\/p>\n
Former presidents Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma were both forced to resign before completing their second terms after losing the backing of other ANC leaders.<\/p>\n
Winning the ANC presidency by a wider margin than he first did in 2017 — when he narrowly fended off a challenge by former African Union Commission Chairwoman Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma — won\u2019t give Ramaphosa \u201croom to throw his weight around,\u201d independent analyst Lukhanyo Vangqa said. \u201cJacob Zuma won his second term by more than 75% and that didn\u2019t save him from recall.\u201d<\/p>\n
Opposition to Ramaphosa\u2019s rule from within the ANC\u2019s ranks was evident at a rally in Katlehong township near Johannesburg this week in support of Zweli Mkhize, a former health minister who is also vying for the party presidency. Several members of the party\u2019s national executive committee were among the hundreds of people in attendance.<\/p>\n
\u201cI am looking forward to being addressed by a new president\u201d after the December conference, said Phumulo Masualle, who is deputy public enterprises minister in Ramaphosa\u2019s executive and is standing for the post of secretary-general.<\/p>\n
Sibongile Besani, the head of the presidency in the ANC, said Ramaphosa is open to working with any other elected officials. He declined to comment on the president\u2019s choice of candidates. While it was the party\u2019s preference for leaders to finish their terms, \u201cit will depend on the conditions that are there\u201d whether Ramaphosa completes another five years in office, Besani said.<\/p>\n
Other potential obstacles stand in the way of Ramaphosa extending his tenure.<\/p>\n
In July, former spy boss Arthur Fraser accused him of covering up the 2020 theft of foreign currency from his farm and laid criminal charges against him. An independent panel appointed by parliament is currently probing whether there are possible grounds for lawmakers to take action against him. The police are also investigating the scandal and under ANC rules, Ramaphosa will have to step down if he\u2019s charged.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s also the possibility of an opposition coalition taking control of the country in 2024, given that support for the governing party slipped below 50% in last year\u2019s municipal elections.<\/p>\n
\u201cBy all accounts, the ANC is not going to get a majority in 2024,\u201d said Moeletsi Mbeki, the deputy chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs and a veteran political analyst. \u201cEverybody can see the ANC is failing to deliver to the population.\u201d<\/p>\n