Wartsila Oyj, a Finnish company that makes power plants, expects South Africa to face electricity outages for at least another decade unless it installs as much as $8 billion (R136 billion) worth of gas-fired generation capacity.<\/p>\n
The outages stem from state power utility Eskom\u2019s failure to adequately invest in new capacity and the maintenance of 14 operating coal-fired power plants. The energy shortages have been exacerbated by the slow ramp-up of its two newest plants.<\/p>\n
Wartsila\u2019s modelling shows South Africa\u2019s plans to add wind and solar capacity to the grid will be implemented too slowly to prevent outages, Wayne Glossop, the company\u2019s senior business development manager for southern Africa, said in an interview.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou do need the gas\u201d to make the renewable energy roll-out work, he said, referring to the fact that plants using the fuel can generate power quickly on demand.<\/p>\n
While Eskom and the government have said that gas-fired plants will be needed as the country transitions away from coal, environmental rights groups oppose prolonging the country\u2019s reliance on fossil fuels.<\/p>\n
Renewable energy companies say the country could use batteries that store power generated from wind or sun instead, but there are questions about the feasibility of using that technology.<\/p>\n
Power cuts are set to increase markedly until 2026 before ameliorating for several years as Eskom\u2019s Medupi and Kusile coal-fired power plants come fully on stream, according to the Wartsila study. It foresees the energy crisis intensifying again in 2032 as older plants close.<\/p>\n
To alleviate disruptions, gas-engine plants capable of generating a total of 9,000 megawatts of power would need to be built at a cost of between $6 billion (R100 billion) and $8 billion (R136 billion) by 2032, according to Glossop.<\/p>\n
The plants, which typically have between 100 megawatts and 400 megawatts of generation capacity, and are also available from companies such as Siemens and General Electric, could ultimately be switched over to hydrogen when that fuel becomes cost competitive.<\/p>\n
Still, they are in competition with other technologies, such as combined-cycle gas turbines and open-cycle gas turbines. Eskom plans to build a 3,000 megawatt gas-to-power plant on South Africa\u2019s east coast, and the government intends to issue a tender for power plants using the fuel.<\/p>\n