South African lawmakers quashed an advisory panel\u2019s report that found President Cyril Ramaphosa may have breached the constitution, bolstering his campaign for re-election as party leader. The rand and government bonds rallied.<\/p>\n
Ramaphosa\u2019s political future was cast into doubt on 30 November when the panel delivered a scathing assessment of his handling of the theft of at least $580,000 that had been stashed in a sofa at his game farm. The findings were rejected by 214 legislators in the 400-member National Assembly on Tuesday, scuppering a potential impeachment inquiry.<\/p>\n
Ramaphosa didn\u2019t break any laws, and there is no case for him to answer, Pemmy Majodina, the party\u2019s chief whip, said during a debate on the report. \u201cCredible evidence should be presented for impeachment,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
The rand extended its gains and traded 2% stronger at 17.2348 per dollar by 6:08 p.m. in Johannesburg. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond fell 16 basis points to 10.92%.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe ANC\u2019s decision not to move ahead with impeachment proceedings against Ramaphosa is a net positive for South Africa\u2019s financial markets and the rand,\u201d said Brendan McKenna, the New-York based emerging markets economist & FX strategist at Wells Fargo Securities.<\/p>\n
\u201cKeeping Ramaphosa in office at least keeps his reform agenda on the table, which I think is something the economy needs and can provide long-term benefits to the economy if implemented.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ramaphosa Opponents<\/strong><\/p>\n The ANC\u2019s top leadership ordered its 230 lawmakers to defend Ramaphosa. Five legislators voted against him, while a handful of others stayed away.<\/p>\n Those who broke ranks included Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who narrowly lost to Ramaphosa in the contest to lead the ANC in 2017, along with former Mines Minister Mosebenzi Zwane and Supra Mahumapelo, an ex-premier of the North West province.<\/p>\n \u201cI was just thinking about my responsibility to the public,\u201d Dlamini-Zuma said in an interview. \u201cI was not thinking about any consequences\u201d for the ANC\u2019s internal elections, she said.<\/p>\n The sitting was held in the Cape Town city hall because the National Assembly chambers were gutted by a fire in January and have yet to be repaired. Lawmakers from all the main opposition parties voted in favor of adopting the report.<\/p>\n \u201cWe note the decision of the National Assembly,\u201d Vincent Magwenya, Ramaphosa\u2019s spokesman, said in a text message. \u201cThe president has consistently stated his commitment to due process.\u201d<\/p>\n Buffalo Bills<\/strong><\/p>\n Ramaphosa is widely expected to win a second term as ANC leader at its Dec. 16-20 national conference after receiving the most nominations for the post, and the vote reinforced his status as the front-runner. The party has held power since the racist system of apartheid ended in 1994, and whoever is chosen as its leader will also be its presidential candidate in a 2024 general election.<\/p>\n \u201cThis predictable outcome puts an end to the impeachment proceedings,\u201d said Melanie Verwoerd, an independent political analyst and former ANC lawmaker. \u201cIt also paves the way for a Ramaphosa victory at the ANC elective conference.\u201d<\/p>\n The furore embroiling the president erupted in June when Arthur Fraser, the nation\u2019s former chief spy, laid charges against him, alleging that he tried to cover up the theft of at least $4 million from his farm in the northern Limpopo province. The source and accuracy of that information remain unclear. Opposition parties questioned whether the president had broken foreign exchange and tax rules.<\/p>\n Parliament appointed the advisory panel headed by Sandile Ngcobo, a former chief justice, to investigate the matter. It disputed Ramaphosa\u2019s assertions that the stolen cash came from the sale of 20 buffalo to Sudanese businessman Hazim Mustafa and that his farm manager decided to hide it in a couch because he thought that was the safest place to keep it.<\/p>\n While Ramaphosa initially contemplated resigning, he later backtracked and said he will challenge the panel\u2019s findings in court on the basis that they\u2019re legally flawed. He\u2019s consistently denied any wrongdoing. Mustafa confirmed in an interview with Sky News that he\u2019d bought the animals through an agent but never took delivery because of the coronavirus pandemic.<\/p>\n Ramaphosa isn\u2019t necessarily off the hook despite having escaped parliamentary censure. The police are also investigating the matter, and under ANC rules, he\u2019ll have to resign if he\u2019s criminally charged. The central bank and tax authorities are meanwhile conducting their own probes into his conduct.<\/p>\n \u201cShould those come up with serious adverse findings, he would almost certainly resign,\u201d Verwoerd said. \u201cThe question remains how long Ramaphosa will remain president.\u201d<\/p>\n A former labour union leader and one of the wealthiest Black South Africans, Ramaphosa succeeded Jacob Zuma in early 2018 and pledged to tackle the corruption and economic malaise that set in during his predecessor\u2019s nine-year rule.<\/p>\n The scandal \u201chas tainted Ramaphosa\u2019s anti-corruption credentials and re-election campaign but there is no viable alternative candidate in the ANC that can secure the political survival of the party,\u201d said Aleix Montana, Africa Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.<\/p>\n \u201cWe still expect the ANC to win a parliamentary majority at the 2024 election since opposition parties remain unable to capitalize on the ongoing political crisis within the ANC.\u201d<\/p>\n
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