{"id":656849,"date":"2023-01-17T12:48:59","date_gmt":"2023-01-17T10:48:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=656849"},"modified":"2023-01-17T12:49:15","modified_gmt":"2023-01-17T10:49:15","slug":"new-year-same-old-load-shedding-lie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business-opinion\/656849\/new-year-same-old-load-shedding-lie\/","title":{"rendered":"New year, same old load shedding lie"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Finance minister Enoch Godongwana says that South Africa will be able to call load shedding a &#8216;thing of the past&#8217; within the next 12-18 months. Experts disagree.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking to <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/africa\/davos-2023-south-africa-plans-end-load-shedding-12-18-months-finmin-2023-01-16\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters<\/a> <\/strong>at the World Economic Forum (WEF), the minister said that stage 6 load shedding would ease within roughly five months in line with new measures and the revamping of power plants taking effect.<\/p>\n<p>An emergency plan drawn up by president Cyril Ramaphosa and the National Energy Crisis Committee on Monday (16 January) also pins its hopes on <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/656807\/ramaphosas-emergency-plan-to-end-load-shedding-including-new-laws\/\">ending at least the worst of the load shedding crisis by the end of the year<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>However, South Africans will be forgiven for getting a lingering sense of d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu, as these assurances echo many similar promises made by the national government over the last few years.<\/p>\n<p>From former president Jacob Zuma all the way to utterances this week, the government has promised, time and time again, that an end to load shedding is in sight.<\/p>\n<p>One of the most notable promises for an end to load shedding was made on <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kalliekriel\/status\/1572685424560062471\">2 September 2015<\/a><\/strong>, when Ramaphosa &#8211; then deputy president and in charge of the Eskom energy &#8216;war room&#8217; &#8211; told the nation that load shedding would be behind the country in &#8220;18 months to two years&#8221; (ie, by the end of 2017).<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn eighteen months to two years, you will forget that the challenges we had in relation to power or energy or Eskom ever existed,\u201d Ramaphosa said at the time.<\/p>\n<p>More than five years after load shedding was supposed to be a thing of the past, rolling blackouts are not only still very much in existence, but have become part of daily life in South Africa &#8211; ripping through the economy, taking out businesses, jobs and quality of life in its wake.<\/p>\n<p>And even now, with the minister&#8217;s latest comments in tow, experts, analysts and economists <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/655569\/stage-7-load-shedding-is-coming-analyst\/\">expect things to get worse<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"UU3Za2VqFI\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/656383\/south-africa-is-in-trouble-economists-warn\/\">South Africa is in trouble, economists warn<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;South Africa is in trouble, economists warn&#8221; &#8212; BusinessTech\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/656383\/south-africa-is-in-trouble-economists-warn\/embed\/#?secret=G4skG9EyBU#?secret=UU3Za2VqFI\" data-secret=\"UU3Za2VqFI\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Godongwana&#8217;s current belief of a speedy recovery from load shedding echoes that of the energy minister Gwede Mantashe who told <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Ycdoo-TWFh8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">eNCA<\/a> <\/strong>earlier this past week (14 January) that Eskom can be fixed within the next six to 12 months.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Do we have the capacity, technically, to deal with the crisis? If not, can we go out and look for that capacity? It will be a very complex problem&#8230;It will take us six to 12 months to sort the issue if we pay attention to the issue,&#8221; said Mantashe.<\/p>\n<p>These claims stand in stark contrast to what experts in the field anticipate. Energy expert Chris Yelland said that these claims of a swift end to load shedding are misleading to the public and not possible by the cash-strapped Eskom, reported <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dailyinvestor.com\/south-africa\/7297\/gwede-mantashes-big-eskom-load-shedding-lie\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daily Investor<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Load shedding is tied to Eskom&#8217;s energy availability factor (EAF) &#8211; a measure (percentage) of time the power station fleet was available for use when it was needed. The new Eskom board is aiming for the EAF to sit at 75%; once it surpasses 70%, load shedding is expected to be a thing of the past.<\/p>\n<p>Energy regulator Nersa, meanwhile, has set a smaller target for Eskom to hit an EAF of 65% &#8211; but even this target is clouded in doubt.<\/p>\n<p>Yelland said that contrary to the lofty targets, Eskom&#8217;s energy factor has actually been on a downward trend over the past five years and is barely able to hold above 50%.<\/p>\n<p>The issue is a lot of Eskom&#8217;s fleet needs to be maintained or fixed while they produce power, which is not possible; stations need to be put offline to be fixed.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTo increase Eskom\u2019s EAF, there must first be a slowdown. It then has to bottom out, stabilise, and start to rise. This process will take several years,\u201d Yelland said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c<strong>It is mathematically impossible for this to happen<\/strong> in the 2023\/2024 or 2024\/2025 financial years.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The graph below, provided by DailybInvestor, illustrates the decline in Eskom&#8217;s EAF from 2016 to 2022:<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Eskom-energy-availability-factor-2016-to-2022.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-656903 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Eskom-energy-availability-factor-2016-to-2022.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"990\" height=\"611\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Eskom-energy-availability-factor-2016-to-2022.png 990w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Eskom-energy-availability-factor-2016-to-2022-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Eskom-energy-availability-factor-2016-to-2022-768x474.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 990px) 100vw, 990px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Without the current generating units able to be taken offline for repairs, the only other alternative is to add more capacity to the grid &#8211; but even this is falling short, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/651077\/south-africa-has-run-out-of-road\/\">with bid windows 5 and 6 for Independent Power Producers effectively failing<\/a><\/strong>, leaving huge shortfalls in additional planned capacity.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/656807\/ramaphosas-emergency-plan-to-end-load-shedding-including-new-laws\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ramaphosa\u2019s emergency plan to end load shedding \u2013 including new laws<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, the finance minister repeats and old talking point that stands in contrast to energy analysts predictions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":641941,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[26,3482],"class_list":["post-656849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-opinion","tag-headline","tag-reuters"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/656849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=656849"}],"version-history":[{"count":23,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/656849\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":656959,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/656849\/revisions\/656959"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/641941"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=656849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=656849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=656849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}