{"id":681481,"date":"2023-04-18T16:13:37","date_gmt":"2023-04-18T14:13:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=681481"},"modified":"2023-04-18T16:16:04","modified_gmt":"2023-04-18T14:16:04","slug":"winter-load-shedding-is-going-to-be-worse-than-you-expect-analyst-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business-opinion\/681481\/winter-load-shedding-is-going-to-be-worse-than-you-expect-analyst-warns\/","title":{"rendered":"Winter load shedding is going to be worse than you expect, analyst warns"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto says that load shedding in the coming winter months is going to worse than many people are expecting &#8211; but hopefully, things will only improve from there.<\/p>\n<p>Commenting on a week of backlash towards electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa&#8217;s recent comments on pumping billions of rands back into coal, the analyst said that South Africa has a clear way out of the load shedding crisis, if only the &#8220;madness&#8221; could be set aside.<\/p>\n<p>In the context of the power crisis, Attard Montalto said that the madness in question is trying to set aside established energy plans and promote spending money the country doesn&#8217;t have on assets the National Treasury doesn&#8217;t fund.<\/p>\n<p>In a media briefing following a tour of Eskom&#8217;s coal fleet this past month, Ramokgopa floated an &#8216;option&#8217; he would present to cabinet, promoting investment into the refurbishment of coal power stations, while boosting investing into private coal mines to ensure better coal quality for these stations.<\/p>\n<p>While this was not presented as an official proposal, Ramokgopa questioned South Africa&#8217;s haste in decommissioning its coal power stations and trying to replace them with renewables that could not match the generation taken offline watt for watt.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"Le3e5MKrIj\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/678749\/tough-choices-for-south-africa-as-stage-10-load-shedding-looms\/\">Tough choices for South Africa as stage 10 load shedding looms<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Tough choices for South Africa as stage 10 load shedding looms&#8221; &#8212; BusinessTech\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/678749\/tough-choices-for-south-africa-as-stage-10-load-shedding-looms\/embed\/#?secret=zrHXlKfR8i#?secret=Le3e5MKrIj\" data-secret=\"Le3e5MKrIj\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>However, this has been met with confusion and backlash from energy stakeholders and has been described as incoherent, given the established policy direction in the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.intellidex.co.za\/insights\/peter-attard-montalto-load-shedding-will-end-sooner-if-we-keep-madness-at-bay\/\">According to Attard Montalto<\/a><\/strong>, questioning established plans is not a bad thing, but counterproposals need to be supported by data.<\/p>\n<p>More importantly, they need to make sense.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;What really shocked&#8230; was the clear lack of understanding of how the budget process works or how investment in a tied private sector mine might work over what period. The plans are completely incoherent,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;There is no way the National Treasury would fund upgrading of private sector mines. The finance minister has confirmed that, leaving egg on (Ramokgopa\u2019s) face.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The analyst noted that Eskom has already done the calculations for what Ramokgopa suggested: it will cost R400 billion to extend some of the fleet for a further five years. This is money that no one has, and there is no room to raise these funds.<\/p>\n<p>Making the suggestion even more nonsensical is that it would take &#8211; at best &#8211; five years to execute this plan. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/680673\/stage-8-load-shedding-hits-as-south-africa-runs-out-of-time\/\">This is time the country does not have<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;You would still need to procure the fastest and cheapest electricity in those five years anyway: renewables, battery, a little bit of gas, rooftop solar and so on. The minister\u2019s job is to end load-shedding, yet his plan would fail to do that even if the money was available from the magic money tree,&#8221; Attard Montalto said.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst said that the country needs a sensible plan through the IRP and political will to get this plan done with haste &#8211; not sinking into &#8220;madness&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>However, even with the best plan and best execution, it&#8217;s too late for the coming winter. The hope lies in the years beyond.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If things go to plan, then this winter should be the worst point of the load-shedding crisis, albeit a particularly bad one and <strong>worse than people generally expect<\/strong>,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The end of load-shedding, supported if there is a credible and sensible IRP, may well take a few years longer. We will get there quicker \u2014 taking investment sentiment along with us, if we can keep the madnesses at bay.&#8221;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/lifestyle\/681133\/south-african-households-are-in-serious-trouble\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">South African households are in serious trouble<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>South Africa is facing the worst load shedding ever.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":671119,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[26,4080],"class_list":["post-681481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-opinion","tag-headline","tag-intellidex"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/681481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=681481"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/681481\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":681495,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/681481\/revisions\/681495"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/671119"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=681481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=681481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=681481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}