{"id":708080,"date":"2023-08-01T08:28:17","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T06:28:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=708080"},"modified":"2023-08-01T08:48:13","modified_gmt":"2023-08-01T06:48:13","slug":"two-growing-holes-in-south-africas-economy-to-keep-an-eye-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/708080\/two-growing-holes-in-south-africas-economy-to-keep-an-eye-on\/","title":{"rendered":"Two growing holes in South Africa’s economy to keep an eye on"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Despite decreased load shedding and improved sentiment amongst South African manufacturers, South Africa recorded a trade balance deficit of R3.5 billion in June 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The South African Revenue Service (SARS) said that the deficit was due to exports of R167.6 billion and imports of R171.1 billion – including trade with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia (BELN).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SARS added that the year-to-date preliminary trade balance surplus of R5.6 billion is a substantial decline from the R129.6 billion trade balance surplus from the comparable period in 2022<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Export flows declined by 8.3% from R182.9 billion in June 2022 to R167.6 billion in June 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, import flows jumped 6.5% from R160.7 billion in June 2022 to R171.1 billion in June 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a month-to-month basis, exports dropped by 8.6% from R183.4 billion in May to R167.6 billion in June. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imports declined by 1.6% from R173.9 billion in May to R171.1 billion in June. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decline in export flows was driven by declines in Ores and concentrates, Vehicles (Goods) and vehicles for passengers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following ongoing Vouchers of Correction (VOC), the preliminary trade balance surplus of R10.2 billion announced for May 2023 was revised downwards to R9.6 billion. <\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

South Africa’s five biggest exporting partners were: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. China (12.0%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. United States (7.4%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. United Kingdom (6.0%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Japan (5.6%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Mozambique (5.6%)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Whilst the top 5 countries South Africa imported from were: <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. China (23.3%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. United States (8.5%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. Germany (7.7%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    4. India (6.3%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    5. United Arab Emirates (4.5%)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      The trade deficit worsens when BELN is excluded, rising to a R14.7 billion deficit, with export flows at R151.6 billion, and import flows at R166.3 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The preliminary cumulative trade balance has also dropped from a R72.6 billion trade balance surplus in 2022 to a trade balance deficit of R54.4 billion in 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Month-on-month, exports decreased by 9.4% (R15.7 billion), while imports declined by 1.4% (R2.4 billion) over the same period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Budget hole<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The significant decline in South Africa’s trade surplus comes amid warnings that the country’s overall budget deficit for 2023\/24 is likely to be far bigger than projections by National Treasury in February 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      According to the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), while the country’s monthly budget balance surprised on the upside in June 2023 – recording a much larger-than-expected surplus of R36.6 billion – this is substantially lower than the surplus of R73.8 billion in the same month last year<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The BER noted that the glaring hole comes from gross tax revenue, which was down by 1.4% year-on-year during the first three months of fiscal 2023\/24 (April-June 2023) compared to the same period last year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      “Not unexpectedly, the revenue decline was driven by lower corporate tax receipts, which tanked by 20.5% year-on-year during April to June,” the BER said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      “At the same time, main budget expenditure was up by 9.9% year-on-year over the same period.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The economists said that the bottom line is that government revenue is underperforming the February budget expectation at this early stage of the 2023\/24 fiscal year, while expenditure growth is exceeding the Treasury\u2019s projection. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      “This supports our view that the main budget shortfall in 2023\/24 will handsomely exceed the February budget projection of 3.9% of GDP,” it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n

      Read: South Africans turning to credit cards \u2013 as other options dry up<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Economists have eyes on South Africa’s trade and budget balances – warning that gaps are widening.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":95,"featured_media":669465,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[26,3246],"class_list":["post-708080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-headline","tag-sars"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/708080","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/95"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=708080"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/708080\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":708230,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/708080\/revisions\/708230"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/669465"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=708080"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=708080"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=708080"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}