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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nNew data published by independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan shows a breakdown of Eskom’s power output over the years, clearly showing how renewables and burning diesel have kept South Africa from the edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Looking at output rates in terms of gigawatt hours (GWh), Eskom’s output from coal has steadily declined from around 21.8GWh in 2019 (pre-Covid) to a low of 18.25GWh in 2023 – down 16.3%, a loss of 3.5GWh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Output from nuclear has also declined, reflecting the loss of unit 1 from Koeberg as it was taken offline for maintenance. Nuclear output dropped from 1.46GWh in 2019 to 0.9GWh in 2023 – another 0.6GWh contributing to the shortfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Other generating sources had to be used to compensate for the coal and nuclear losses. This includes increased power from imports (1.13 GWh to 1.26 GWh) and a boost from renewables and peaking – the latter of which is only supposed to be used during brief periods of high demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Output from renewables has increased from 1.3GWh in 2019 to 2GWh in 2023 – up 54%, although from a low base. Peaking sources, including hydropower and OCGTs, increased from 0.85GWh to 1.4GWh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The overall picture from the data is that South Africa lost around 4.1GWh of output over the last five years but only managed to compensate by adding around 1.8GWh from renewables and emergency diesel and hydropower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This has resulted in a significant unmet power demand gap, which is at around 2.32GWh in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Eskom’s use of its OCGTs to effectively serve as baseload output has been heavily criticised – particularly around the significant costs involved, where nearly R30 billion worth of diesel has already been burned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, it is clear from the output data that without the OCGTs running, the country’s unmet demand would be far higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Jordaan, the estimated economic cost of unmet demand is already at R138 billion this year so far \u2013 projected to hit R224 billion by year-end. This does not include multiplier effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The same is true for renewables, which have become vital to keeping the lights on and stopping load shedding from worsening. <\/p>\n\n\n\n This is particularly true for wind generation, which, as many energy experts have pointed out, was critical to staving off stage 8 load shedding during the early winter months in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What is notable in Jordaan’s data is that the renewable energy output reflects the renewable sources that form part of Eskom’s stable, not the sea of private generation that has swept the country. Eskom’s output data also doesn’t reflect the multitude of private diesel generators used by households and businesses nationwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Collectively, the country has imported close to R50 billion worth of solar panels, lithium-ion batteries and inverters, compared to R32 billion in the whole of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This includes importing roughly R12 billion worth of solar cells and panels alone in the first half of the year as the country faces crippling load shedding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Data from Eskom and Professor Anton Eberhard released earlier in August revealed<\/a> that South African households and businesses had installed 4,400 MW of rooftop solar PV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Eberhard posted data from Eskom, which showed that the country\u2019s installed solar rooftop PV increased from 983 MW in March 2023 to 4,412 MW in June 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This 349% increase in solar rooftop PV significantly reduced the residual load that Eskom needs to meet during the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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