{"id":718606,"date":"2023-09-14T17:01:39","date_gmt":"2023-09-14T15:01:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=718606"},"modified":"2023-09-14T17:01:51","modified_gmt":"2023-09-14T15:01:51","slug":"code-red-at-eskom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/718606\/code-red-at-eskom\/","title":{"rendered":"Code Red at Eskom"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The latest system report from Eskom is a sea of red, with the utility warning that the next 52 weeks are projected to see generation shortfalls of over 2,000MW (2 stages of load shedding) – at minimum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The system report<\/strong><\/a> features a 52-week projection, which is coded based on the expected supply and demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Code Green indicates that the group expects adequate generation to meet demand and feed reserves. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Code Yellow projects a small shortfall to meet reserves (under 1,000MW) but adequate supply to meet demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Code Orange anticipates a 1,000MW to 2,000MW shortfall, “definitively” failing to feed reserves and possibly demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Code Red is when there is a 2,000+ MW shortfall where both reserves and demand won’t be met, the group said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its assessment of the year ahead, Eskom provides both a “planned” risk level – based on its baseline assumptions of megawatts that will be unavailable – and a “likely” risk scenario, based on the baseline assumption being exceeded by 1,500 MW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The assumptions are all based on the last week of available operational data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This particular assessment is based on an assumption that 16,000MW will be out due to unplanned outages. Including reserves of 2,200MW, Eskom plans for outages to hit 18,200MW. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the likely scenario, this ramps up to approximately 20,200MW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given these assumptions, the group has pencilled in Code Red – the worst case – for the next 52 weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The forecast comes as Eskom urges South Africa to cut its power demand or risk running beyond stage 6 into even higher stages of load shedding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stage 6 load shedding is currently in effect indefinitely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the country has not yet moved beyond stage 6 in its national schedules, the power utility has been forced to pull megawatts off the grid that far exceeds the stage 6 definitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom defines each stage of load shedding in tranches of 1,000MW – even though this is not a strict technical limit. When stage 1 load shedding hits, for instance, it could reflect anywhere between 800MW and 1,200MW being pulled from the grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also depends on time of day, as demand picks up in the mornings and the evenings, yet national load shedding stages and schedules do not rapidly fluctuate during those hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, despite this flexibility, Eskom has moved into stage 7 load shedding<\/strong><\/a> without announcing it nationally, in recent days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Wednesday, the group warned that demand has exceeded planned levels over the past few days due to a cold front hitting the country. At the same time, units have gone down, and others have been delayed in returning to service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If these factors aren’t managed, higher stages of load shedding may be necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Read: Eskom warns of push beyond stage 6 load shedding as cold snap hits<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eskom’s outlook for the next 52 weeks does not bode well for load shedding.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":718630,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[1164,26],"class_list":["post-718606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-eskom","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/718606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=718606"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/718606\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":718634,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/718606\/revisions\/718634"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/718630"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=718606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=718606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=718606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}