{"id":719268,"date":"2023-09-18T13:31:55","date_gmt":"2023-09-18T11:31:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=719268"},"modified":"2023-09-18T13:31:55","modified_gmt":"2023-09-18T11:31:55","slug":"south-africa-has-two-options-and-neither-is-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/719268\/south-africa-has-two-options-and-neither-is-good\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa has two options &#8211; and neither is good"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>South Africa faces a fiscal cliff, but the government&#8217;s two options &#8211; either increase taxes or cut expenditure &#8211; are unlikely to happen before next year&#8217;s election. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is according to RMB Chief Economist Isaah Mhlanga, who said that South Africa&#8217;s financial woes come amid disappointing tax collections and excessive spending on grants. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Following the Covid-19 pandemic, demand for goods rose, increasing commodity prices. An assumption was that would be a long-term trend and help commodity-producing countries like South Africa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This assumption and better-than-expected tax revenue collections fueled calls for increased spending, which Mhlanga said &#8220;drowned out good fiscal management.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the Social Relief of Distressed (SRD) grant was supposed to only be a temporary relief following the Covid-19 pandemic, it has been extended twice without any revenue source to cover its R35 billion cost in FY23\/24. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Political leaders have also ignored the National Treasury&#8217;s calls to stop the grant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-businesstech wp-block-embed-businesstech\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"qbZTgmovGn\"><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/719100\/south-africas-r15-billion-grant-problem-report\/\">South Africa&#8217;s R15 billion grant problem: report<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;South Africa&#8217;s R15 billion grant problem: report&#8221; &#8212; BusinessTech\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/719100\/south-africas-r15-billion-grant-problem-report\/embed\/#?secret=PCchgBXxv2#?secret=qbZTgmovGn\" data-secret=\"qbZTgmovGn\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, South Africa&#8217;s economy is underperforming due to load shedding, logistics constraints, higher interest rates and low external demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has resulted in tax revenue collections, mainly corporate income tax, falling far below budget expectations, with tax revenue collections about R22 billion behind expectations in the first five months of the year &#8211; implying a shortfall of R53 billion for the 2024\/24 fiscal year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Higher-than-budgeted salaries and wages are also the primary reason for the R15.3 billion overspend over the fiscal year &#8211; this rises to R184 billion when annualised. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Combined, this implies nearly R240 billion worth of fiscal slippage in the current fiscal year,&#8221; Mhlanga said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Options for the government <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mhlanga noted that the government has three options &#8211; although they&#8217;re only really two &#8211; to ensure fiscal sustainability: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Reduce spending;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increase taxes; or <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A combination of both. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Given that it is an election year, either choice is undesirable politically, but the cost of not doing any to a desirable extent will be even more costly in the future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;It is a choice between the popular vote (in the 2024 national elections) versus fiscal sustainability,&#8221; he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-businesstech wp-block-embed-businesstech\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"e9ztruZ1Ve\"><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/715748\/treasury-says-we-need-budget-cuts-ramaphosa-disagrees\/\">Treasury says we need budget cuts, Ramaphosa disagrees<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Treasury says we need budget cuts, Ramaphosa disagrees&#8221; &#8212; BusinessTech\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/715748\/treasury-says-we-need-budget-cuts-ramaphosa-disagrees\/embed\/#?secret=BhsYJ33FL1#?secret=e9ztruZ1Ve\" data-secret=\"e9ztruZ1Ve\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, even if the government does the unlikely and decides to reduce spending and increase taxes, it will likely not be enough to ensure fiscal sustainability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;There is a need for a credible growth story, which at this point can only be hoped for from the private sector \u2014 provided the government eases the business operating environment,&#8221; Mhlanga added. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Without this credible growth strategy, any fiscal consolidation that will be shown will remain conditional on the actual implementation of economic reforms.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Read: <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/719180\/warning-over-south-africas-new-state-owned-company\/\" target=\"_blank\">Warning over South Africa\u2019s new state-owned company<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>South Africa&#8217;s financial situation is dire and tough decisions have to be made &#8211; but the government is unlikely to do anything, economists say.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":95,"featured_media":704959,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[26,2214],"class_list":["post-719268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-headline","tag-rmb"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/719268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/95"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=719268"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/719268\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":719382,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/719268\/revisions\/719382"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/704959"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=719268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=719268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=719268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}