While global meat prices are showing a downward trend, South Africans looking to light up a braai in the coming holiday may find prices difficult to swallow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the latest trend data from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), local meat prices are suffering from a weak exchange rate<\/strong> along with much higher input costs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This means that prices are running counter to global trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The group noted that the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Meat Price Index was 1% lower in September compared to August, underpinned by a decline in prices for pig, poultry, and ovine meat types despite a recovery in bovine meat prices. <\/p>\n\n\n\n “Pig meat prices showed the largest decline of 2.6% as a result of large export availabilities and low import demand, especially from China. The price of poultry was 2.5% lower, backed by ample supplies from Brazil, the largest global exporter,” the BFAP said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ovine prices were down marginally (-0.6%) resulting from high supplies from Australia, although demand was firm, specifically from China and the Middle East. <\/p>\n\n\n\n By contrast, global bovine meat prices increased by 1.3% in September, supported by strong import demand for lean meat in the USA, countering high exportable quantities from Brazil and Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In South Africa, however, poultry and pork prices in particular moved contrary to international trends, given the weak exchange rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Poultry prices were slightly higher (1.4%) for the second consecutive month and up by 16.8% year-on-year, reflecting persistently high input costs and the weaker exchange rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Pork prices were also up by 11.3%, while beef prices showed a marginal increase of 1.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The BFAP warned that poultry prices could increase further in coming months, as the full effect of the current widespread Avian Influenza outbreak starts to manifest in markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n “This impact is expected to be stronger in egg prices where an estimated 5 million layers have been culled, and it is more difficult to supplement domestic availability through imports,” it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “While weaner calf prices dropped by 2.3% in September, beef prices are expected to improve as demand grows in preparation for the festive season, a trend which could be exacerbated by the reduced availability of poultry due to the (avian flu) outbreak.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n Demand for sheep meat remains low as this is the most expensive meat type, resulting in prices for mutton being in line with international trends, moving lower by -2.3% in September, it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stats SA data<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n On Wednesday (18 October), Stats SA published the latest inflation figures for September 2023, showing an upward trend in meat prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While beef prices are generally lower (between 2% and 13% lower than September 2022, depending on cut of meat), pork and chicken prices are still tracking significantly higher (up to 9% and 11%, respectively).<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to chicken producers, the country is facing a longer shortage of poultry in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n South Africa is currently experiencing a shortage of poultry and eggs due to an outbreak of the H7 bird flu, resulting in producers culling large percentages of their birds. On top of the massive impact of load shedding this year, producers have suffered staggering losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Along with this, there are now warnings that prices could escalate further as the shortage sets in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n About 12% of the country\u2019s chicken industry is under quarantine, and losses are estimated at R4.8 billion due to the outbreak of avian flu so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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