{"id":733139,"date":"2023-11-23T12:05:32","date_gmt":"2023-11-23T10:05:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=733139"},"modified":"2023-11-23T12:08:04","modified_gmt":"2023-11-23T10:08:04","slug":"eskom-is-in-trouble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/733139\/eskom-is-in-trouble\/","title":{"rendered":"Eskom is in trouble"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Power utility Eskom’s latest system status report<\/strong><\/a> is once again a sea of “code red” as even slight gains made in recent weeks have reversed the group’s short-term outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the previous report (for week 45<\/strong><\/a>) was still largely dominated by “code red”, the group saw slight relief on the cards at least in some weeks ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the latest report has returned to a full-scale code red for the next 52 weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The system report features a 52-week projection for energy, which is coded based on the expected supply and demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Code Green indicates that the group expects adequate generation to meet demand and feed reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Code Yellow projects a small shortfall to meet reserves (under 1,000MW) but adequate supply to meet demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Code Orange anticipates a 1,000MW to 2,000MW shortfall, \u201cdefinitively\u201d failing to feed reserves and possibly demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Code Red is when there is a 2,000+ MW shortfall where both reserves and demand won\u2019t be met, the group said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its assessment of the year ahead, Eskom provides both a \u201cplanned\u201d risk level \u2013 based on its baseline assumptions of megawatts that will be unavailable \u2013 and a \u201clikely\u201d risk scenario, based on the baseline assumption being exceeded by 1,500 MW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The assumptions are all based on the last week of available operational data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This particular assessment is based on an assumption that 16,000MW will be out due to unplanned outages. Including reserves of 2,200MW, Eskom \u201cplans\u201d around 18,200MW being offline due to outages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the \u201clikely\u201d scenario, this ramps up to approximately 20,200MW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The system report aligns with the latest plant performance data compiled by independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan, based on the statistics from Eskom for week 46.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Jordaan, the data releases from Eskom have been delayed, which is often an indication of trouble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, contrary to the political statements indicating improvements in Eskom’s generation capacity, the latest data shows that the group’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has regressed from the much-celebrated 60% level reached a month ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The 60% EAF that parliament was briefed on in week 43 relapsed past the May baseline of 53.7%, just four weeks later,” Jordaan said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This has been accompanied by escalations in breakdowns, which the analyst noted have now entrenched above 30% (approximately 16,000MW) and are far above the 20% limit imposed by energy regulator Nersa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eskom’s “better” performance in recent months can largely be attributed to two main factors: a drop in planned maintenance (Eskom taking fewer units offline) and lower demand (South Africans using less electricity or moving on to different energy sources).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the last two weeks, both of these factors have reversed, contributing to the escalation of load shedding – demand and planned outages have both ticked up slightly, while Eskom has experienced more breakdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, demand is still far below “normal” patterns, which means that South African energy users or alternative energy users are still doing some heavy lifting in keeping load shedding at bay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Because of these factors, stage 4 load shedding is back – with the risk that a nudge from any side (more breakdowns, higher demand, more maintenance) could push the stages higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Read: South Africans are saving the day for Eskom<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The latest plant performance data from Eskom shows that the utility is fighting an uphill battle with unit losses and greater demand leading to higher stages of load shedding – and the forecast is not looking good.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":718630,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"idle","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"","_sma_x_attempts":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-733139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/733139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=733139"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/733139\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":733185,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/733139\/revisions\/733185"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/718630"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=733139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=733139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=733139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}