Although load shedding’s return was inevitable as industries would start getting back on track, Padayachee noted that many high-energy users are still on holiday, keeping demand low. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The more than two-week-long suspension of load shedding was mainly due to the significantly lower demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
He said that he was concerned that Eskom’s unplanned outages increased significantly, standing at over 16,200 MW of generating capacity as per the last update from Eskom<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n On top of this, the capacity for planned maintenance stood at just under 8,500 MW at the start of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Eskom said that it is working to restore just under 5,000 MW of generating capacity by the end of the week, which, if all goes according to plan, should help meet the expected increase in demand from next week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n 2024 fears <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 2023 was the worst year of load shedding, with South Africans cumulatively spending 72.6 days or 1,742 hours with no power – over double the amount seen in 2022. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking ahead to 2024, independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan<\/a> said that there are major concerns that Eskom\u2019s coal-fired baseload is stagnating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although the baseload improved from 17.5 GW in Q1 2023, it only ever reached 18.5 GW by the end of the year. Jordaan said that this level needs to improve to 20.5 GW to minimise load shedding. <\/p>\n\n\n\n He also noted with concern that Eskom often uses expensive open-cycle gas turbines when it faces generating problems, which can also cloud the true state of the grid. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) is another worry, with the embattled power utility needing to keep it around 70% for load shedding to end – but it can only keep just above 55%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The group’s target of 60% EAF by March 2023 was missed, and it is unlikely to reach its targets of 65% and 70% EAF for March 2024 and March 2025, respectively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Although it is unlikely that the EAF will hit these levels on a long-term basis, as it will take years to reverse the declining trend, some energy experts have said that this may not be necessary as more private generations come online in the near future, shielding large parts of the population from load shedding. <\/p>\n\n\n\n By the close of 2023, EAF dropped to just above 50%, revealing a worsening situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Demand-w52-1024x413.png\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/EAF-w52-1024x413.png\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n