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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nRetail trade sales declined 0.7% in the three months ending November 2023 compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The report highlights that general dealers and retailers in hardware, paint and glass were the biggest contributors to this decline, with negative growth rates of 1.8% and 5.7%, respectively, and a combined contribution of -1.3% to the overall decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, a positive indicator for the same time frame was that retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods were the largest positive contributors (5.0%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To add salt to the wound, seasonally adjusted retail trade sales decreased by 0.5% in the three months ending November 2023 compared with the previous three months. The largest negative contributor to the decrease was all \u2018other\u2019 retailers (-1.4% and contributing -0.2 of a percentage point).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Conversely, seasonally adjusted retail trade sales increased by 0.4% in November 2023 compared with October 2023, which ultimately followed month-on-month changes of -1.4% in October 2023 and 0.0% in September 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the South African Consumer & Retail Report by BMI research, the firm “hold[s] a mildly positive outlook for consumer spending in South Africa over 2024. Slower inflation, decreasing debt servicing costs and a tighter labour market will all feed through and support spending growth.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n “That said, risks remain elevated, with continuous power outages and uncertainty around the presidential election in May 2024 to provide potential downticks in spending as consumers and businesses remain cautious,” the report said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, senior economist at FNB said that they “expect subdued consumer demand to persist in the near term, weighed on by sticky inflation, high interest rates, and depressed consumer confidence.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n “That said, medium- to longer-term outlook is slightly brighter,” said Mkhwanazi. “In addition, the contemplated, albeit modest, interest rate cutting cycle should help support spending on discretionary items [which] should see household consumption expenditure lift from the estimated 0.8% y\/y in 2023, to around 1.5% in 2024.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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