{"id":743607,"date":"2024-01-18T15:42:08","date_gmt":"2024-01-18T13:42:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=743607"},"modified":"2024-01-18T15:42:08","modified_gmt":"2024-01-18T13:42:08","slug":"south-africa-could-narrowly-dodge-a-technical-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/743607\/south-africa-could-narrowly-dodge-a-technical-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa could narrowly dodge a technical recession"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Mining production in South Africa increased substantially in November 2023, but economists still have a dire outlook for the sector. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Stats SA, mining production increased from 3.6% in October to 6.8% in November &#8211; far ahead of the consensus of 3.0% y\/y from the Reuters poll. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The largest positive contributors to the 6.8% print were: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PGMs (15.2% and contributing 3.9 percentage points);<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>coal (10.6% and contributing 2.5 percentage points); and<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>iron ore (20.1% and contributing 2.1 percentage points)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Seasonally adjusted mining production also increased from 2.0% in October to 2.1% in November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;<strong>The sustained monthly momentum indicates a positive contribution to 4Q23 GDP growth. It aligns with our view that GDP likely rebounded in 4Q23 following a 0.2% q\/q decline in 3Q23<\/strong>,&#8221; Thanda Sithole, FNB Senior Economist, said. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/MINING-1-.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"891\" height=\"226\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/MINING-1-.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-743613\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/MINING-1-.jpg 891w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/MINING-1--300x76.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/MINING-1--768x195.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 891px) 100vw, 891px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Stats SA<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2023, the mining sector faced several headwinds, such as weak external demand, low commodity prices, and domestic infrastructure constraints, with overall output declining by 0.6% in the 11 months leading up to November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This was, however, an improvement from the 7.5% decline seen during the first 11 months in 2022. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;While the peak of load-shedding intensity has passed,<strong> the mining sector will continue to grapple with enduring challenges posed by port and rail infrastructure weaknesses<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The dynamics of external demand will play a pivotal role, and we maintain a cautious outlook given escalated geopolitical tensions. Potential disruptions in shipping could further impact domestic exports of break bulk commodities,&#8221; Sithole added. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investec Economist Lara Hodes also noted that despite November&#8217;s result &#8211; buoyed in part by base effects &#8211; the fragile global environment will continue to hurt commodity demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI survey results showed that global manufacturing remained on a lacklustre footing, with the Eurozone seeing manufacturing production on average sliding for the ninth consecutive month. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Moreover, international trade conditions deteriorated. A deceleration in trade, exacerbated by the effects of an escalation in geopolitical tensions, remains a further downside risk to the already subdued global growth environment,&#8221; Hodes said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Read<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/trending\/741713\/boost-for-manufacturing-in-south-africa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Boost for manufacturing in South Africa<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mining data from Stats SA has provided hope for South Africa&#8217;s GDP print. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":95,"featured_media":743625,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[76,26,1498],"class_list":["post-743607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-fnb","tag-headline","tag-investec"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/743607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/95"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=743607"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/743607\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":743633,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/743607\/revisions\/743633"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/743625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=743607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=743607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=743607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}