{"id":748538,"date":"2024-02-05T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-05T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=748538"},"modified":"2024-02-05T09:51:46","modified_gmt":"2024-02-05T07:51:46","slug":"the-worst-is-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/748538\/the-worst-is-over\/","title":{"rendered":"The worst is over"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Financial experts say that the worst of South Africa&#8217;s power crisis is over now, with the private sector having come to the rescue to ease pressure off the national grid &#8211; despite the government dragging its feet for years before actually allowing it to happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Schroders fund manager Robert Davy and senior strategist and researcher Andrew Rymer, while South Africa&#8217;s economic outlook remains bleak &#8211; and many problems persist in the energy sector &#8211; 2023 looks to be the worst the country will see in terms of national blackouts and load shedding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The experts noted that the lack of power South Africa is still experiencing remains a major impediment to growth, but at the very least, positive policy moves &#8211; albeit forced &#8211; have allowed the electricity market to open up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They said most investors are looking for proper reforms in South Africa, which have been notoriously slow to become a reality. Similar to the power crisis, the country is in the throes of a logistics crisis, which is hampering the export of coal and iron, among other commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The common theme with the power and logistics crises is that of troubled state-owned companies that have been hobbled by historical mismanagement and corruption, where operations have consistently declined over the last decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the experts noted that one critical reform that has been implemented is <strong>the lifting of private power generation caps.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While this was a major boon for power production in South Africa, they stressed that this action was taken due to an emergency rather than proactive reform by the government. In fact, <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business-opinion\/731763\/oops-government-got-it-very-wrong\/\"><strong>the government actively pushed back against these reforms for years<\/strong><\/a> before being forced by desperate necessity to open the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, South Africa now expects that by the end of 2024, around 4,000MW of generation capacity will be added to the grid. This, coupled with operational improvements at state power utility Eskom, should result in reduced load shedding in 2024 and 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The move follows a debt relief plan for Eskom of R254 billion in last year\u2019s budget. This was a positive milestone and should enable Eskom to improve transmission and invest in the network to be ready for more renewables rollout,&#8221; they said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;<strong>2023 still looks like it will mark the peak in the energy crisis in terms of load shedding<\/strong>.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Schroders, the current outlook is that there is potential for power cuts to be reduced significantly in 2024 after certain power stations come back online following repairs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Renewables being added to the grid will also help considerably. Meanwhile, <strong>easing demand from some households and businesses moving off-grid will also help<\/strong>. Around 4,400MW of rooftop solar has so far been added to households and businesses,&#8221; they said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The downside is that the positive moves in the power sector are unlikely to boost South Africa&#8217;s economic prospects, with the South African Reserve Bank and International Monetary Fund pegging GDP growth at a paltry 1% in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The modest improvement on the power front will be offset by the weaker export outlook amid relatively lower platinum group metals (PGM) prices, the experts noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africa&#8217;s economy has been lagging behind other emerging markets, with local issues getting mixed up in other global macroeconomic sensitivities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The structural challenges facing South Africa\u2019s economy persist, and reform has been slow. There are some signs of the private sector stepping up to resolve challenges, for example, in the energy and logistics sectors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Indeed, there has been some improvement in the energy sector, with reduced load shedding, albeit this will remain an issue for some time. Even so, significant uncertainty continues to overhang the longer-term growth outlook,&#8221; they said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/747416\/electricity-pricing-in-south-africa-is-about-to-change-in-a-big-way\/\">Electricity pricing in South Africa is about to change in a big way<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2023 was the worst year of load shedding on record &#8211; and experts say that it will probably stay that way, with the private sector and private households coming to the rescue in 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":679185,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-748538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/748538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=748538"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/748538\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":748566,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/748538\/revisions\/748566"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/679185"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=748538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=748538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=748538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}