{"id":749464,"date":"2024-02-07T11:09:03","date_gmt":"2024-02-07T09:09:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=749464"},"modified":"2024-02-07T11:14:56","modified_gmt":"2024-02-07T09:14:56","slug":"new-election-poll-sees-massive-shake-up-for-south-africa-anc-below-40-da-at-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/749464\/new-election-poll-sees-massive-shake-up-for-south-africa-anc-below-40-da-at-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"New election poll sees massive shake-up for South Africa: ANC below 40%, DA at risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A new poll<\/a> from Ipsos sees a massive shake-up on the cards for South Africa’s political landscape after the 2024 general elections; with the ANC possibly receiving less than 40% of the vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, the polling shows that the current official opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA), has the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) hot on its heels – making the 2024 elections hotly contested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ipsos conducted 3,600 face-to-face interviews across South Africa from 23 October to 1 December, 2023. One of the anchoring questions asked was: “If there were National [or Provincial] elections tomorrow, which political party would you vote for?<\/em>“<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Respondents were requested to select their choice on an imitation ballot paper on a computer, before handing the computer back to the interviewer. “This approach replicates a real ballot paper process and ensures the confidentiality of the vote,” said Ipsos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The firm noted that this research does not necessarily constitute an election prediction<\/strong>, but rather captures sentiment at the given period of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Credible election predictions can only be made in the final stages leading up to the election [as] various factors, including campaign dynamics, political and economic changes, as well as the state of essential services…can influence the election outcome in the final months.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally – history has shown that polls can prove incorrect. For example, the 2016 US presidential elections<\/a> and Brexit<\/a> saga highlighted how far off polls can be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, polling around the 2019 elections – including Ipsos’ findings – were not far off from the actual outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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South African 2019 election: the predictions vs the results<\/a><\/blockquote>