{"id":751668,"date":"2024-02-14T14:14:24","date_gmt":"2024-02-14T12:14:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=751668"},"modified":"2024-02-14T14:14:32","modified_gmt":"2024-02-14T12:14:32","slug":"south-africa-just-muddling-along","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/751668\/south-africa-just-muddling-along\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa just muddling along"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The BankservAfrica Economic Transactions Index (BETI) &#8211; a standardised value of all economic transactions in the South African economy &#8211; remained the same in January 2024, showing that the economy is in &#8216;muddle along&#8217; mode. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe BETI index for January remained unchanged at 133.3 and improved by only 0.4% on a year-on-year basis,\u201d said Shergeran Naidoo, BankservAfrica\u2019s Head of Stakeholder Engagements.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the reprieve in load shedding and a fuel price cut in January, the economy could not gain momentum during the first month of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With load shedding hitting stage 6 this last week and an under-recovery in fuel prices, there could be further pain for the economy at the start of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-businesstech wp-block-embed-businesstech\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"ifRg0LSdQY\"><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/751556\/here-is-the-expected-petrol-price-for-march-5\/\">Here is the expected petrol price for March<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Here is the expected petrol price for March&#8221; &#8212; BusinessTech\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/751556\/here-is-the-expected-petrol-price-for-march-5\/embed\/#?secret=wVH3wmED1z#?secret=ifRg0LSdQY\" data-secret=\"ifRg0LSdQY\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cUnder the current conditions of elevated interest rates, high food price inflation, a lacklustre job market, low wage growth and slumped confidence levels, the economic narrative remains underwhelming,\u201d said Elize Kruger, Independent Economist.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although inflation encouragingly moderated to 5.1% in December, some near-term upward pressures will lead to a short-term downward trend in the inflation indicators, such as the weaker rand exchange rate, surging fuel prices and notable medical aid premium increases. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, headline CPI is predicted to moderate towards year-end and average 5.3% in 2024 compared to 6.0% in 2023. This moderation will likely reduce purchasing power erosion over the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other nowcast indicators also highlighted the stagnant nature of economic activity, such as the S&amp;P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI) &#8211; an indicator of the operating environment for private businesses &#8211; increasing slightly from 49.0 in December to 49.2. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> S&amp;P Global said that businesses were hit by the Durban port crisis, which impacted delivery times and output capacity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Absa PMI also dropped to an index level of 43.6, last seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, highlighting that the manufacturing sector is still on the back foot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Total vehicle sales also disappointed, with only 41,636 units sold in January &#8211; the sixth month of consecutive sales declines. Naamsa attributed this to the cost-of-living crisis, load shedding and the nation&#8217;s logistics challenges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c<strong>While we started the year with a good dose of \u2018more-of-the-same\u2019, a slight improvement to this scenario is still forecast towards the second half of the year<\/strong>,&#8221; said Kruger.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;<strong>Specifically, the expectation of lower international interest rates later in the year could spur a better performance in the rand exchange rate, which will likely further feed the moderation expected in consumer inflation and subsequent interest rate cuts could be on the cards<\/strong>.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-businesstech wp-block-embed-businesstech\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"WjB3HAGKWT\"><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/751370\/interest-rate-pain-wont-go-away-in-south-africa\/\">Interest rate pain won&#8217;t go away in South Africa<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Interest rate pain won&#8217;t go away in South Africa&#8221; &#8212; BusinessTech\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/751370\/interest-rate-pain-wont-go-away-in-south-africa\/embed\/#?secret=7QlyFAjVoK#?secret=WjB3HAGKWT\" data-secret=\"WjB3HAGKWT\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If the intensity of load shedding decreases compared to 2023, real GDP growth should accelerate from an estimated 0.6% in 2023 to 1.3% in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To get out of this low growth profile, there has to be a massive acceleration in structural reform, as current growth levels can not address South Africa\u2019s socioeconomic challenges, such as the high unemployment rate. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-44.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"637\" height=\"432\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-44.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-751710\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-44.png 637w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/image-44-300x203.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 637px) 100vw, 637px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Read<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business\/751372\/mining-production-rises-slightly-but-remains-below-expectations\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mining production rises slightly, but remains below expectations<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>South Africa&#8217;s economy is expected to get better &#8211; but South Africans should not expect any relief in the near-term. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":95,"featured_media":651637,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[12671,26],"class_list":["post-751668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-bankserv-africa","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/751668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/95"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=751668"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/751668\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":751732,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/751668\/revisions\/751732"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/651637"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=751668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=751668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=751668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}