The economy is in “recovery mode” and showing small but significant year-on-year growth, according to the latest BankservAfrica Economic Transaction Index (BETI).<\/p>\n
The index, published on Wednesday (10 December), is regarded as a fast and accurate indicator of current economic activity tracking monthly financial transactions, which totaled R686 billion in November, up 5.2% on a year ago.<\/p>\n
“This is R1 billion more than the previous record of December 2013, and probably indicates that the value of transactions in December 2014 – the festive month – is again going to break all records.”<\/p>\n
The index indicated that the economy was in recovery mode, showing a small, but significant, growth of 0.8% year-on-year.<\/p>\n
A further boost could come from another drop in the fuel price in December.<\/p>\n
The statement quotes BankservAfrica head data analyst Caroline Belrose.<\/p>\n
“The growth figure is not a high number, but it is the best year-on-year percentage change since February this year. Therefore, although an improvement of less than one percent in real terms is certainly not ideal, November at least confirms an ‘uptick’ trend.”<\/p>\n
“The economic recovery is ongoing, but only time will tell to what extent Christmas spending can give the economy a boost,” she said.<\/p>\n
However, the index sounds a cautionary note on the actual number of transactions.<\/p>\n
“The actual number of transactions within the BETI does reflect an underlying problem, showing a decline of 2.3% over the year, while the nominal value increased by only 2.1% before standardisation.”<\/p>\n
The decline perhaps indicated that while the economy was expanding, there were fewer people transacting. An alternative explanation was that people might be a little more cautious before transacting.<\/p>\n
“This drop in the number of transactions should be watched carefully.”<\/p>\n
Overall indications were that South Africa was growing, but that growth remained subdued, and the economy could be summarised as “fragile”.<\/p>\n
South African banking fees 2015<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n