{"id":757505,"date":"2024-03-05T17:00:04","date_gmt":"2024-03-05T15:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=757505"},"modified":"2024-03-06T17:54:17","modified_gmt":"2024-03-06T15:54:17","slug":"bad-news-for-homeowners-in-south-africa-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/property\/757505\/bad-news-for-homeowners-in-south-africa-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Bad news for homeowners in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Lightstone&#8217;s House Price inflation forecast for 2024 shows that South Africa&#8217;s residential property market in 2024 should average out below inflation \u2013 meaning property owners will be losing value on their property in real terms by the end of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lightstone created three scenarios for residential property prices based on the projected economic conditions in the coming period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The low scenario assumes a GDP of 0% and core inflation of 5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The mid scenario is based on a GDP of 1% and core inflation of 4.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The high scenario, being the best-case scenario, assumes a GDP of 1.2% and core inflation of 3.5%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Lightstone also assumes various repo rate moves for its scenarios. Most economists and analysts anticipate interest rate cuts in the third and fourth quarters of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the report, the forecasted outcomes of these scenarios are consistent with those forecast for 2023. In 2023, House Price Inflation (HPI) finished at 2.39%, against a forecast range from 0.9% to 3.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Based on this, Lightstone noted that <strong>HPI in South Africa\u2019s residential property market in 2024 should average out between a low of 1.8% and a high of 3.5%.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-05-115132.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"499\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-05-115132-1024x499.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-757521\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-05-115132-1024x499.png 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-05-115132-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-05-115132-768x374.png 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-05-115132-1536x748.png 1536w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-05-115132.png 1721w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Lightstone Area Value Bands Index reviews inflationary rates for property based on the following values:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Luxury: &gt; R1.5 million<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>High Value: R700,000 to R1.5 million<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mid Value: R250,000 to R700,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Low Value: &lt;R250,000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The table below outlines the various projections:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Band<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Low Scenario<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Mid Scenario<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>High Scenario<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Luxury<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.52%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3.35%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">4.09%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>High Value<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1.70%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.60%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3.20%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mid Value<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.01%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.77%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3.45%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1.84%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.86%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3.57%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Headline Inflation for 2024 projected at 4.5%<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Lightstone, luxury homes are expected to perform better in terms of HPI, with the high scenario for luxury homes predicted to be 4.09%, which is an increase from the achieved HPI of 3.05% at the end of 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, high-value homes are expected to have a 3.2% HPI (1.78% at the end of December 2023), whereas mid-value homes may experience a 3.45% HPI (2.48% at the end of December).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The mid scenarios are more or less in line with HPI in 2023 and the likely outcome for 2024 and would represent an improvement in each price band over 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, according to Investec forecasts, core inflation averaged 4.9% last year and is projected to decrease to 4.6% and 4.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means the value of residential property, on average, will be less at the end of 2024 compared to the start of the year, which is not good news, especially for property investors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Unfortunately, the dampening domestic environmental factors \u2013 load shedding and water outages coupled with difficult socio-economic conditions \u2013 show little sign of short-term improvement and are unlikely to help the residential property market,&#8221; said Lightstone. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, after the 2024 budget announcement in February, property commentators expressed concerns over the end of solar rebates for residential properties and the transfer duty exemptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While relieved that property taxes remained unchanged, industry stakeholders expressed regret that the transfer duty exemption threshold was not increased from R1.1 million to boost activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lightstone data shows that most first-time buyers look to buy in the R700,000 to R1.5 million price bands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/property\/755879\/cape-towns-luxury-property-market-vs-the-most-expensive-cities-in-the-world\/\">Cape Town\u2019s luxury property market vs the most expensive cities in the world<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lightstone&#8217;s House Price inflation forecast for 2024 shows residential property prices are likely to fall sort to inflation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":703959,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12755],"tags":[7421,853],"class_list":["post-757505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-property","tag-lightstone","tag-south-africa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/757505","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/92"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=757505"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/757505\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":757623,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/757505\/revisions\/757623"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/703959"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=757505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=757505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=757505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}