This expectation aligns with the sentiments of Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago, who told<\/a> Bloomberg that interest rates are unlikely to change any time soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe task of taming inflation is not yet done. Until that is done, I don\u2019t see why there should be a change in the monetary stance,\u201d said Kganyago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe inflation outlook is uncertain, and it\u2019s been volatile. Until inflation stabilizes where we want it, at 4.5%, and is sustained there, we don\u2019t see why we should change our monetary policy stance,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The governor listed food prices, geopolitical risks and their impact on global supply chains and energy markets as some of the upside risks to the inflation outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He also said the bank won\u2019t succumb to election pressures as the country prepares to vote on 29 May 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bishop added that international oil prices have climbed on strengthening global growth and upward revisions in economic growth forecasts from multilateral institutions, placing upward pressure on inflation measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Additionally, she noted domestic pressures are expected to worsen for food prices as the El Nino has intensified, bringing extreme heat and below-average rainfall to some areas. The lag between agricultural and retail food prices will delay the feed-through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “This risks an interruption to the expected moderation in food price inflation in H1.24 and particularly higher price pressures over H2.24. <\/p>\n\n\n\n “Risks to the upside may come from the rand too for inflation, on delays in the advent of US rate cuts,” said Bishop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Considering this, she added even July may not prove to be the month the SARB chooses to make its first interest rate cut <\/strong>in the expected interest rate cutting cycle for South Africa over H2.24 and 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Investec has already revised the inflation forecast for the year up slightly, to 4.7% year-on-year, given higher supply side pressures, with CPI inflation not seen dropping to 4.5% before the end of Q3.24 now,” she said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/unnamed-3.png\")
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