Support for South Africa\u2019s ruling African National Congress is plunging, and a party backed by former President Jacob Zuma may become the country\u2019s third-biggest after next month\u2019s election, a new opinion poll shows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The ANC, which has ruled South Africa since the end of apartheid, may garner just 37% of the vote on 29 May, while Zuma\u2019s uMkhonto weSizwe Party, or MKP, may get 13%, the Social Research Foundation said in comments sent to Bloomberg on Wednesday, citing a poll it carried out this month. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the 2019 election, the ANC won 57.5% of the vote, its lowest share since taking power in 1994.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Such a result may mean the ANC has to form a coalition with a large rival to retain control of Africa\u2019s most industrialized economy and have to make concessions on policies and appointments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The ruling party may also force President Cyril Ramaphosa from office before the end of his term \u2014 a prospect that has caused angst among investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rand fell as much as 0.9% against the dollar on news of the poll findings and traded 0.4% lower at 18.5391 by 11:57 a.m. in Johannesburg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The SRF stressed that the poll doesn\u2019t constitute a forecast of the election outcome and that support for the MKP \u2014 which launched in December \u2014 still needs to settle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cA lot can still change before May 29,\u201d said Frans Cronje, the head of the SRF. The ANC may get a \u201clate-stage surge\u201d that may add two to three percentage points to its tally, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Zuma Support<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Zuma ruled the country from 2009 to 2018 when the ANC forced him from office after a series of corruption scandals started to erode electoral support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While his decision to back the MKP has hurt the ANC, particularly in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, the ruling party has been drawing big crowds to its election rallies and has a campaigning machinery that dwarfs that of all of its rivals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Steven Friedman, a politics professor at the University of Johannesburg, questioned the methodology used in polls that indicate support for the ANC has fallen below 40%, saying they don\u2019t take into account those people who refused to express an opinion or didn\u2019t intend to vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI track municipal by-elections, which is real people casting real votes,\u201d and they show ANC support in the mid-to-high 40% range, he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThere are so many things that can distort poll outcomes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The SRF poll of 1,835 registered voters across the country also found that the main opposition Democratic Alliance would win 25% of the vote, the Economic Freedom Fighters 11% and the Inkatha Freedom Party 5%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Freedom Front Plus and Action South Africa would both get 2%, it showed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As recently as mid-January, before it carried out its surveys, the SRF had predicted that the MKP would get just 1% to 2% of the national vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The results of the survey are another indicator of the ANC\u2019s decline amid corruption scandals, severe power outages, rampant crime and the collapse of basic services such as water provision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The poll was based on an estimated turnout of 66% and has a 2.2% margin of error.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The SRF, a public-policy organization, was founded in 2021. Cronje, a former chief executive officer of the Institute of Race Relations, has consulted for South Africa\u2019s biggest political parties, companies and richest people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n