![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Dan-Marokane.jpg\")
<\/a>This has led to a measurable improvement in operations, including less frequent and less intense load shedding – to the point that April has not seen any outages, and load shedding has been kept at bay for 30 consecutive days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As a result, there has been a reduction in the unreliability assumptions for winter 2024 of about 1,000MW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On top of this, the utility wants to target a 1,700MW reduction in unplanned losses and approximately 400MW of additional demand-side management initiatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This should limit load shedding to stage 2 in the coming winter months, where demand tends to increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the target or planned-for case (outages at 15,500MW), South Africa is expected to see 50 days of load shedding, either at stage 1 or 2. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the current system performance is leaning towards the base case (14,000MW of outages), which will see only five days of stage 1 load shedding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Marokane noted that in the “extreme” case, where the group suffers breakdowns exceeding 17,000MW, the range pushes up to between stage 2 to stage 5 over 103 days, which remains a risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Energy availability <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Addressing Eskom’s low energy availability factor (EAF), Eskom chair Mteto Nyati said that, while the power utility missed the target of 65% EAF by the end of March 2024, it actually came close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He said that EAF is currently around 61%, which is close to where the group expected it to be. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Eskom’s persistently low EAF was attributed to the high levels of maintenance being done, which is slowly being reduced in preparation for winter demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Group executive for generation, Bheki Nxumalo, said that EAF is a function of losses and maintenance and needs to be understood in the context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The group is still targeting 70% EAF by 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n