{"id":773682,"date":"2024-05-26T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-26T06:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=773682"},"modified":"2024-05-25T18:23:14","modified_gmt":"2024-05-25T16:23:14","slug":"unrest-and-violence-warning-as-south-african-police-prepare-for-action","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/773682\/unrest-and-violence-warning-as-south-african-police-prepare-for-action\/","title":{"rendered":"Unrest and violence warning as South African police prepare for action"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Numerous organisations, including the South African Police, BMI, and Oxford Economics, have warned of a higher risk of violence and unrest amidst the 2024 general elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2024 general elections take place on 29 May. It is the first time since the democracy that the ruling ANC is at risk of getting under 50% of the vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, closely linked to former president Jacob Zuma, is a dark horse in the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uncertainty linked to the elections\u2019 outcome and the government port-election heightens the risk of violence and unrest in South Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Monday, FirstRand warned of an increased risk of social unrest, looting, and clashes in May and June linked to the 2024 elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The group issued an internal medium-risk security notice, warning that it anticipates some uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MKP) protest action during May\/June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This risk is related to possible dissatisfaction over former President Jacob Zuma\u2019s ineligibility to stand for Parliament in the 2024 elections because of a recent contempt of court conviction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FirstRand circulated the memo to various operating entities, such as First National Bank, WesBank and Rand Merchant Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Friday, security group Fidelity warned of possible protests in KwaZulu-Natal because of the Constitutional Court’s decision to exclude Jacob Zuma from standing for office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics\u2019 senior political analyst, Louw Nel, explained that South Africa\u2019s high inequality and social polarisation elevate the country\u2019s risk of protests and unrest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that the country\u2019s 18.4 million welfare grant recipients far outstrip the 7 million income taxpayers represents a risk to the country\u2019s fiscus and social cohesion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The effect of spark, which can have a snowball effect, was seen in the violent unrest in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unrest was a stark reminder that a rapid deterioration in the country\u2019s security environment remains an ever-present risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics added that if the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) is elected, the risk of protests, trade union strikes, and unrest in South Africa will be severely elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics\u2019 concerns are echoed by the South African Police Service\u2019s crime intelligence unit, which warned of numerous direct and indirect risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SA Police is concerned about unrest, violence, and boycotts in some parts of the country linked to the elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the concerns is truckers blocking key routes, like the N3 highway. The truckers want foreign drivers banned from working in South Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The police is also preparing for unrest linked to protests about poor service delivery in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and North West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are further concerns that police station armouries in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and the Western Cape could be targeted by protestors who want to steal guns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greatest risk for political violence since 1994<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

BMI\u2019s associate director of operational risk, Derrick Botha, said South Africa\u2019s upcoming elections pose the greatest risk for political violence since 1994.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The biggest risk comes from the newly formed uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, closely linked to former President Jacob Zuma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Constitutional Court recently ruled that Zuma is not eligible to stand for this month\u2019s elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His disqualification for standing in the elections is linked to his 15-month jail sentence for contempt of court in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this ruling, Zuma remains the party’s face. As the registered leader, he will appear on ballots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Botha warned that if the MK Party does not accept May\u2019s election outcome, it could lead to mass unrest across South Africa, similar to the July riots in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The July 2021 unrest was linked to Zuma\u2019s imprisonment for contempt.  It was concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What began as protests in support of Zuma quickly spiralled into wider riots and looting, as underlying economic grievances played a part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Botha said these riots showed the willingness of many Zuma supporters to resort to violence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, this willingness could again be showcased if the former President\u2019s party does not accept the election results this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts warn of unstable social environment in South Africa<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Efficient Group chief economist Dawie Roodt<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Efficient Group chief economist Dawie Roodt said South Africa has a volatile mix of unemployment, rising poverty, a polarised society, and election uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some political leaders fan the flames with divisive rhetoric and unrealistic promises to garner votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roodt said these factors put pressure on society, which makes him very concerned about the possibility of violence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like Botha, he is concerned that a spark could have a cascading effect, leading to a repeat of the violence and looting experienced in July 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe unrest can pick up momentum because of the underlying factors, like unemployment and poverty. These forces can drive violence in South Africa,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former deputy chief of the South African Army, General Roland de Vries, echoed Roodt\u2019s concerns that a trigger event around the elections could cause unrest and violence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said there is a dangerous environment with high youth unemployment, households struggling financially, and increased absolute poverty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is particularly concerned about the millions of people relying on social grants and state support to put food on the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cShould state finances collapse and it fails to pay social grants, there will be havoc in South Africa,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government is not well equipped to deal with these situations, which could lead to anarchy similar to the July 2021 unrest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He shared the SA Police\u2019s concerns that criminal elements could close major roads, like the N3, preventing food from being distributed throughout the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI am concerned about the state\u2019s capability of pre-empting, preventing, or containing such threats,\u201d De Vries said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI doubt the state can contain such threats and stabilise the environment quickly to prevent it from spreading.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Numerous warnings of unrest and violence in South Africa have been linked to the 2024 general elections.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":773692,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[12166,1459,19916,19915,11005,19914],"class_list":["post-773682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-government","tag-bmi","tag-dawie-roodt","tag-derrick-botha","tag-louw-nel","tag-oxford-economics","tag-south-african-police"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/773682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=773682"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/773682\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":773798,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/773682\/revisions\/773798"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/773692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=773682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=773682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=773682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}