{"id":775222,"date":"2024-06-04T15:28:47","date_gmt":"2024-06-04T13:28:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=775222"},"modified":"2024-06-04T15:37:18","modified_gmt":"2024-06-04T13:37:18","slug":"south-africas-watershed-moment-and-a-very-important-2-weeks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business-opinion\/775222\/south-africas-watershed-moment-and-a-very-important-2-weeks\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa&#8217;s &#8216;watershed moment&#8217; &#8211; and a very important 2 weeks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>For the first time since the end of apartheid, the African National Congress (ANC) was unable to receive an outright majority in South Africa&#8217;s recent parliamentary elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;This is a massive shift in South African politics, and it is a watershed moment,&#8221; said a lecturer in Political Studies at Wits University, Dr Nicole Beardsworth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africa has a proportional representation system, which generally does not lead to dominant party democracies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the country has seen one-party dominance for the past 30 years, with Beardsworth saying that this largely stems from the ANC&#8217;s role as a liberation party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the 2024 general elections, the ANC fell well under 50% in Parliament, receiving around 40% of the vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-businesstech wp-block-embed-businesstech\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"v5MuGOnpB0\"><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/774786\/2024-south-africa-election-final-national-and-provincial-results-and-seat-allocations\/\">2024 South Africa Election: Final national and provincial results and seat allocations<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;2024 South Africa Election: Final national and provincial results and seat allocations&#8221; &#8212; BusinessTech\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/774786\/2024-south-africa-election-final-national-and-provincial-results-and-seat-allocations\/embed\/#?secret=lsDHeKTif6#?secret=v5MuGOnpB0\" data-secret=\"v5MuGOnpB0\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Although still a central figure in South Africa&#8217;s political landscape, a flurry of negotiations between the ANC and other political parties is set to take place to form a coalition government for the seventh administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of the key players at the negotiating table include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The main opposition party, the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) led by John Steenhuisen; <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), a populist party led by former president Jacob Zuma; <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema; <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The conservative Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), led by Velenkosini Hlabisa; and <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gayton McKenzie&#8217;s right-wing Patriotic Alliance (PA).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>These are heavy options to weigh, especially given that each hold vastly different ideologies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">Some analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sabcnews.com\/sabcnews\/anc-da-coalition-will-bode-well-for-the-sa-economy-analyst\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">favour an ANC-DA<\/a>\/IFP-Multi Party Charter coalition, largely due to its free-market economic policies, but working together is unpopular among some segments of their supporters.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Research associate at the Social Policy Initiative, Duma Gqubule <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businesslive.co.za\/bd\/opinion\/columnists\/2024-06-04-duma-gqubule-anc-should-form-coalition-with-eff-and-ifp-as-prelude-to-overtures-to-mk-party\/\">wrote<\/a> that &#8220;for many ANC members, a coalition with the DA would be crossing a red line [causing] another split and the ANC will become a 30% party.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another possibility is an ANC-EFF-IFP\/PA coalition, with Gqubule saying that the ANC could probably meet the EFF halfway on issues such as land, mines and outsourcing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">However, coalitions between the ANC and EFF at a municipal level have proven shaky, and Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop<a href=\"https:\/\/dailyinvestor.com\/south-africa\/45992\/anc-and-eff-coalition-could-bankrupt-south-africa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> described it<\/a> as a &#8220;severe down case&#8221; for markets due to various policy positions.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other possibilities include the ANC pairing up with the MK Party, a party led by former president Zuma that was born out of what it labelled as \u201csaving the ANC\u201d from the \u201cANC of Ramaphosa,\u201d leaving several points of contention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whatever the case, South Africa&#8217;s &#8220;long-term implications will very much depend on decisions made within the next 14 days,&#8221;  said Beardsworth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Let the negotiations begin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The major factors in coalition negotiations are usually [how similar or different their ideological stances are], what proportion of seats the smaller party holds, and prior experience of coalition negotiations,&#8221; explained Beardsworth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The political expert said that due to limited experience with coalition-building at the national level, there is a risk of forming an oversized coalition with a greater ideological distance between the parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Of course, along with these issues will be the usual kinds of horse-trading for positions and contracts, so it will be a complex game of multi-channel negotiations,&#8221; said Beardsworth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ANC has already signalled that it is interested in a &#8216;grand coalition&#8217; or &#8216;government of national unity&#8217; as the one that governed South Africa from 1994-1996 and has said that it is open to working with all parties who received more than 2% of the vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, the ANC has reportedly already reached out to the DA, IFP, EFF, PA and MK Party as it \u201cwants to meet everyone\u201d to move the country forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;But of course, some parties &#8211; such as the DA &#8211; are more ideologically distant from the ANC than others, like the EFF,&#8221; said Beardsworth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;I expect that the DA might have some red lines around BBBEE that could present a sticking point, while the EFF&#8217;s stance on land redistribution and the MK&#8217;s position on scrapping the Constitution and the Constitutional Court will almost certainly be important areas of debate,&#8221;  she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to this, there are some seemingly raw wounds from recent political fights among the parties and their leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Simply, these ideological sticking points of parties could be the make-or-break factor. The ultimate decision &#8220;all depends on which faction of the ANC is in ascendance,&#8221; said Beardsworth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The expert said that &#8220;(Deputy President Paul Mashatile)&#8217;s faction would be most inclined to work with the EFF, while (party chairperson Gwede Mantashe) seems happier to partner with either EFF or MK.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;On the other hand, (Cyril) Ramaphosa and his closest allies are said to favour an oversized coalition with the DA as the most stabilising coalition,&#8221; she added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The long-term implications (for South Africa) will very much depend on decisions made within the next 14 days,&#8221; said Beardsworth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After this, Beardsworth said that &#8220;this is the first real test of our parliamentary system, where governing must be done through consensus politics.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Coalitions can either be messy, fractious and prone to break-down or they can help to correct a problematic political course&#8230; it depends on the coalition partners and their willingness to put the country&#8217;s interests ahead of sectional interests.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Only time will tell,&#8221; said Beardsworth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/774984\/what-happens-next-how-and-when-south-africas-next-president-will-be-elected\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">What happens next? How and when South Africa\u2019s next President will be elected<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With South Africa experiencing a &#8216;watershed &#8216; 2024 election, a politics expert has unpacked what some of the key things to know as coalition discussions kick off.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101,"featured_media":775001,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[1875,1329,6934,19983],"class_list":["post-775222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-opinion","tag-anc","tag-da","tag-eff","tag-mk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/775222","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/101"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=775222"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/775222\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":775304,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/775222\/revisions\/775304"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/775001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=775222"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=775222"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=775222"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}