{"id":775309,"date":"2024-06-05T14:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-05T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=775309"},"modified":"2024-06-05T13:53:17","modified_gmt":"2024-06-05T11:53:17","slug":"load-shedding-will-be-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/775309\/load-shedding-will-be-back\/","title":{"rendered":"Load shedding will be back"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Energy experts have warned that there is a high risk of load shedding in the coming weeks as demand increases due to colder weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom highlighted that South Africa had gone around 70 days without load shedding. The last time this happened was between 5 December 2021 and 2 February 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The power utility attributed its generation fleet’s improved performance and reliability to its Generation Operational Recovery Plan, which began in March 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The plan involved expediting planned maintenance, increasing preventative maintenance, carrying out major plant refurbishments, and implementing life extension projects. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom stated that, due to these efforts, the reduction in Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) or unplanned maintenance was becoming increasingly evident.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consequently, Eskom\u2019s energy available factor (EAF) has significantly improved, preventing load shedding for two months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, power cuts are expected to resume as winter progresses and electricity demand rises, placing pressure on Eskom\u2019s generation fleet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A cold front has affected parts of South Africa since Monday (3 June). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom’s system status report\u2014which has shifted from ‘code red’ in the past two months\u2014is also showing a high risk of shortfalls this week.<\/p>\n\n\n

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City Power has warned Johannesburg residents that prolonged power outages may happen if electricity is not used sparingly in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The utility mentioned that its system is under immense strain due to high consumption, worsened by a recent temperature drop. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some areas also approach critical usage levels that could overload electricity equipment and lead to regional blackouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The energy supplier urges its customers to reduce electricity usage immediately to relieve the strain on the system and prevent load reduction measures from being implemented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The increasing electricity demand is not limited to Johannesburg; Eskom\u2019s latest Weekly System Status Report indicates a nationwide surge in demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In South Africa, the demand for electricity during winter is approximately 6,000 MW higher than in summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although current demand is still lower than in 2023, the contracted energy demand has exceeded the utility\u2019s forecast for 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n

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This upward trend is expected to persist as the country enters the depths of winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom’s CEO, Dan Marokane, stated that despite the utility’s improved performance, it has not increased its electricity supply enough to “confidently” prevent load-shedding in winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He mentioned that Eskom’s performance has significantly improved, with breakdowns decreasing by nearly 10% compared to last year and unit trips decreasing by 19%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Marokane expressed concern that the current unplanned losses of 14,200 MW<\/strong> were still unsustainable and likely to lead to load shedding in winter, with the utility aiming to contain this to stage 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has also cautioned South Africans that load-shedding is likely to return as Eskom may face future setbacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In late April, he mentioned that Eskom is expected to encounter significant challenges due to the large-scale nature of its operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He stated, “We are still working on the reliability of these machines, and that\u2019s why you can\u2019t speak with great confidence that load shedding is behind us. That would be a false claim that can\u2019t be substantiated.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, Professor Sampson Mamphweli, the head of energy at the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI), has warned that load shedding could escalate to stage 5 during winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Africa has experienced a warmer-than-anticipated winter and increased generation from rooftop solar, which has helped prevent load-shedding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mamphweli pointed out that the rise in solar power generation during the day allows Eskom to build up its reserves for the evening peak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this may not be sufficient to prevent load-shedding throughout winter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There may be days without load shedding, but there could also be days with stage 5 load shedding if breakdowns at Eskom\u2019s power stations increase, leading to a rapid decline in electricity supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mamphweli’s analysis resonates with University of Johannesburg professor Hartmut Winkler, who mentioned that load shedding is expected to recur despite lower demand due to the increase in rooftop solar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Winkler added that Eskom has provided an optimistic view to the public regarding its winter situation, and he anticipates South Africa to fluctuate between stages 1 and 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Load shedding warning for winter<\/a><\/blockquote>