{"id":776028,"date":"2024-06-10T14:12:45","date_gmt":"2024-06-10T12:12:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=776028"},"modified":"2026-01-09T14:35:01","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T12:35:01","slug":"the-man-who-could-hold-kwazulu-natals-fate-in-his-hands","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/776028\/the-man-who-could-hold-kwazulu-natals-fate-in-his-hands\/","title":{"rendered":"The man who could hold KwaZulu-Natal’s fate in his hands"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The National Freedom Party’s (NFP) President, Ivan Barnes, could be the new kingmaker in KwaZulu-Natal, despite his party securing only one seat in the provincial legislature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the conclusion of the 2024 national and provincial elections, democratic South Africa is entering a new period of widespread coalition governments, even if they are informal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The African National Congress (ANC) lost its national majority, dropping down to 40% of the vote, and has thus touted a Government of National Unity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports have suggested that the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkhata Freedom Party (IFP) are willing to work with the ANC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has rejected such a government, and the MK Party says it will not work with the ANC if President Cyril Ramaphosa stays. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the ANC holding most of the power on a national level, the picture is incredibly different in KwaZulu-Natal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former President Jacob Zuma’s MK Party saw incredibly strong results in KwaZulu-Natal, falling just shy of an outright majority with 45.35% of the vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ANC not only lost its majority in the province, but its 16.99% share of the vote was even below the IFP’s 18.07%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DA was the fourth-biggest party in the province, with 13.36% of the vote, while the EFF got 2.26% of the vote. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, with only 0.56% of the vote in the province, the National Freedom Party (NFP) received the last remaining seat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The seats in the provincial legislature will be made up as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Party<\/strong><\/td>KZN legislature seats<\/strong><\/td>Seat change (vs 2019)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
MK<\/td>37<\/td>+37<\/mark><\/td><\/tr>
IFP<\/td>15<\/td>+2<\/mark><\/td><\/tr>
ANC<\/td>14<\/td>-30<\/mark><\/td><\/tr>
DA<\/td>11<\/td>–<\/td><\/tr>
EFF<\/td>2<\/td>-6<\/mark><\/td><\/tr>
NFP<\/td>1<\/td>–<\/td><\/tr>
Total<\/strong><\/td>80<\/strong><\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n
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Source: Seth Thorne<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Parties will need 41 seats to form a majority in the 80-seat provincial government. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A potential ANC-IFP-DA team-up would only get 40 seats, with the parties needing only the NFP’s single seat to form a majority.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the EFF and MK, which have indicated that they are willing to work together, would only get 39 seats. A potential arrangement with the NFP would result in a 50-50 split<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The kingmaker of KZN<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NFP was formed in 2011 after a faction led by Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibi split from the IFP. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the 2014 general elections, the NFP got 1.57% of the national vote and 7.31% of the KZN provincial vote. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, the party has suffered several setbacks, such as failing to participate in the 2016 municipal elections, seeing its share of the provincial vote drop to 1.57% in 2019, kaMagwaza-Msibi passing away in 2021, and a leadership dispute that almost left the party unable to contest the 2024 elections. <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, Ivan Barnes was named President of the NFP and, despite the aforementioned infighting at the party, appeared on the ballot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Barnes will thus be crucial in navigating the potential KZN alliance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cynthia Shinga, who is on the IEC’s list for provincial legislatures, could also play a key role, as she will actually sit on the KZN legislature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will be difficult to say who the NFP chooses as its allies, as the party has previously shown loyalty to both sides. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NFP’s Zandile Myeni, who lost the party presidency vote to Barnes, is currently the deputy mayor of eThekwini, ruling alongside the ANC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, founder kaMagwaza-Msibi previously worked as the Deputy Minister of Science and Technology after being appointed to the position by then-South African and ANC President Zuma. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by City Press<\/a>, IFP spokesperson Mkhuleko Hlengwa said that the party had engaged with the ANC, the DA and the NFP about the KZN provincial elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Huge potential <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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NFP President Ivan Barnes (Source: Twitter\/X)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

The potential political chaos could add further strain to KZN, which was the province hardest hit by the July 2021 unrest and 2022 floods. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, business leaders previously highlighted<\/a> the province’s resilience and are confident that it can turn a corner. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

KZN is the second most populated province and contributes roughly 16% of the national GDP. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive developments in logistics have included the award of the management of the Durban Container Terminal Pier 2 to Filipino-based International Container Terminal Services Inc. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This should improve capacity from 1.7 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) to 2.9 million TEUs in two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Luxury resort chain Club Med also announced that it will build a new beach resort on the province\u2019s North Coast by 2026, which should boost tourism in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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New R1.6 billion beach resort coming to South Africa<\/a><\/blockquote>