{"id":782940,"date":"2024-07-18T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-18T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=782940"},"modified":"2024-07-17T13:21:35","modified_gmt":"2024-07-17T11:21:35","slug":"eskom-load-shedding-warning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/782940\/eskom-load-shedding-warning\/","title":{"rendered":"Eskom load-shedding warning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

President Cyril Ramaphosa, Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Eskom CEO Dan Marokane, and energy experts warned that load-shedding could return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Friday, Eskom celebrated 107 days of constant power supply, 73 of which fall in winter when demand is higher than normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last time South Africa experienced such a prolonged suspension of load-shedding was nearly four years ago, between 08 September 2020 and 11 December 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This created a false impression that load-shedding was over and that Eskom\u2019s electricity supply shortage had been resolved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Cyril Ramaphosa cautioned against this optimism, saying the electricity system remains finely balanced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur electricity system remains vulnerable, and we cannot yet rule out a possibility of further load shedding,\u201d Ramaphosa said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He urged the new Government of National Unity (GNU) to continue reforming the electricity sector by increasing private participation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has also warned that Eskom can suffer setbacks, which could lead to load-shedding returning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are still working on the reliability of these machines, and that\u2019s why you can\u2019t speak with great confidence that load-shedding is behind us,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ramokgopa added that the view that load-shedding is over is a false claim that can\u2019t be substantiated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former Reserve Bank deputy governor Kuben Naidoo warned that load-shedding will be reintroduced once the mining industry begins to ramp up production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think half of the reason we don\u2019t have load shedding is because the mining sector is in a deep recession,\u201d Naidoo said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you switch on the mining sector, load-shedding will return, so we still need to continue investing in renewable energy and other energy sources to break that constraint.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy analyst Chris Yelland also expects load-shedding to return when a cold spell hits and electricity demand increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yelland said that while the intensity and regularity of load-shedding may have significantly reduced, power cuts will still happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another factor in reducing load-shedding is a warmer-than-usual winter and lower demand due to households and companies cutting their reliance on Eskom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is unlikely to last, as demand will ramp up during a cold snap and when big industries begin to grow their output again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Eskom CEO Dan Marokane said despite the significant improvement in recent months, they have not revised the forecast shared at the end of April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom predicted that there would be load-shedding during winter, but it would be limited to stage 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marokane said that Eskom needs to stay below 14,000 MW of unplanned outages to reduce the intensity and frequency of load-shedding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If unplanned outages increase to 15,000 MW, Eskom\u2019s Winter load-shedding prediction will take effect, and the country will experience load-shedding again up to stage 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom\u2019s latest weekly system status report substantiates Marokane’s views about breakdowns, demand, and load-shedding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The forecasted demand versus available generating capacity for each week for 52 weeks ahead paints a concerning picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The likely risk scenario shows that Eskom will have a shortfall of over 2,000 MW to meet demand and reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eskom uses colour codes ranging from green (no shortage) to red (worst case), indicating the absence or presence of a capacity constraint, as shown below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n