Experts believe that South Africa’s economy will have a strong couple of years following a challenging past decade. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
South Africa’s GDP only increased by a meagre 0.6% in 2023. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although growth seemed importable at the start of the year due to heightened load shedding, it is likely insufficient to meet the country’s population growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
With South Africa\u2019s population growing by roughly 1.5% annually, the country will likely hit a per-capita recession in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Between 2019 and 2023, South Africa’s economy only expanded by 1%, but the population’s growth over that period meant that GDP per Capita fell by 4%. This should, however, also factor in the devastating impact that Covid-19 had on the economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
2024 did not start well, with the GDP declining by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, high-frequency data suggest that Q2 will show a rebound amid a better-than-anticipated energy supply. Thus, South Africa will miss a technical recession, which is characterised by two straight quarters of negative growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most economists and analysts have estimated that South Africa’s economy will grow by roughly 1.0% in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Best in a decade <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the picture does seem brighter for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, managers see reform in rails and ports, electricity transmission, and skills as key to boosting South Africa’s GDP by 2.0% to 2.5% in the next three years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Managers also have a positive outlook on domestic equities, with a 17% total return expected over the next year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is also widely expected to cut interest rates in Q3, which could boost domestic asset classes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n