Business confidence among retailers in South Africa saw a boost in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is according to the Bureau for Economic Research’s (BER\u2019s) recently published Retail Survey, which was conducted between 7-26 August 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After aligning with the long-term average in Q2, the survey outcomes showed that business confidence among retailers increased by six percentage points (% pts) to 45% in Q3 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Helanya Fourie, senior economist at the BER, said that the rise was contributed to by “consumers’ real disposable income boosted by inflation at a three-year low… the absence of load shedding, the market-friendly election outcome [boosting sentiment], and expectations of an interest rate cutting cycle.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Retail trade sales (real terms) increased by 2.0% y\/y at the start of Q3 (July), versus June\u2019s 4.1% y\/y lift. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Retail sales increased overall, with five of seven categories rising year-on-year; however, hardware paint and glass sales fell by 6.7%, and the “all other retailers” category contracted by 2.7%, together detracting 0.8 percentage points from the headline figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The general dealers\u2019 category, accounting for over 40% of the index, drove July’s 2.0% y\/y increase, with a 4.4% rise contributing 1.8 percentage points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Investec economist Lara Hodes outlined that consumer confidence improved further in Q3 (to the highest level since the first half of 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hodes said that falling rates of inflation have been key to lifting real incomes and “constrained consumers, especially the heavily indebted, will benefit from the start of the SARB\u2019s monetary easing cycle.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n