{"id":792840,"date":"2024-09-30T10:25:41","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T08:25:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=792840"},"modified":"2024-09-30T10:25:46","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T08:25:46","slug":"eskoms-price-hike-warning-for-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/792840\/eskoms-price-hike-warning-for-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Eskom&#8217;s price hike warning for South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Power utility Eskom says that South Africans will need to cough up more for electricity if the country ever wants to return to &#8216;normal&#8217; tariff hikes, warning that more pain will lie ahead if energy regulator Nersa doesn&#8217;t allow it to happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Eskom&#8217;s latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eskom.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/1-MYPD6-Summary_NERSA-Submission_20240807.pdf\"><strong>multi-year price determination applications (MYPD6)<\/strong><\/a>, the group is seeking massive electricity price hikes over the next three years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>36.15% from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>11.81% from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027 and<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>9.10% from 1 April 2027 to 31 March 2028<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In justifying the hikes, Eskom said that it is important for South Africa&#8217;s electricity pricing to be cost-reflective so that future price hikes can come without the major shocks that consumers have seen in the past few years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, it said that energy regulator Nersa has consistently refused to allow Eskom to make pricing cost-reflective, exacerbating the group&#8217;s financial difficulties and effectively kicking the can further down the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;When Eskom makes a revenue application to Nersa, all it expects from a revenue determination is for efficient costs to be recovered through a tariff application. This is motivated in detail when a revenue application is made,&#8221; it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The criteria applied are strictly guided by the relevant legislation and Nersa rules. However, <strong>Nersa has not allowed Eskom to recover its efficient costs at a fair return for many years<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The efficient cost for a utility can be independently determined using the particular South African circumstances. As judged recently, Nersa has not been fulfilling its legislative mandate in this regard.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In essence, Nersa has not been allowing Eskom to recover its efficient costs and a fair return, the group said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By Nersa not allowing Eskom to recover the revenue it applies for,<strong> the group experiences a shortfall that has to be funded by debt and increasing government bailouts<\/strong>. This is further exacerbated by municipal debt, which also needs to be covered. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By FY 2023, Eskom&#8217;s debt securities and borrowings hit R424 billion, with government bailouts hitting a cumulative R242 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The group&#8217;s revenue shortfall hit a cumulative R535 billion, while municipal debt was at R59 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Eskom-problem-getting-worse.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"518\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Eskom-problem-getting-worse.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-792877\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Eskom-problem-getting-worse.jpg 847w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Eskom-problem-getting-worse-300x183.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Eskom-problem-getting-worse-768x470.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Problem could get much worse<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eskom warned that the problem could get much worse if it is kept back from hiking tariffs to a cost-reflective state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even with the Eskom Debt Relief Act\u2014which will see the South African government take over R250 billion of Eskom&#8217;s debt\u2014the group says this will &#8220;come to nought&#8221; if Nersa doesn&#8217;t allow the price hikes to go through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;(The government) package addresses the decades of shortfalls in revenue determinations and requires Nersa determinations that allow for a further narrowing of the gap between towards cost reflectivity. The debt support would come to nought if the gap to cost reflectivity is not narrowed,&#8221; Eskom said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eskom&#8217;s MYPD6 application lays out the impact of Nersa&#8217;s previous tariff decisions\u2014some of which have been successfully fought (and won) in court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These relate mainly to the Regulatory Clearing Account (RCA) in Nersa&#8217;s methodology, which allows Eskom to recover lost revenue in future tariff hikes (or, theoretically, to give back excessive revenue through future tariff cuts, which is yet to happen).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The High Court has found that Nersa has not correctly implemented its methodology, resulting in a R62 billion shortfall in revenue recovered by Eskom over a seven-year period. For the amounts that Nersa has determined, approximately R20 billion is lost due to the time value of money, where recovery of efficient revenue is delayed by 4 to 6 years,&#8221; Eskom said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The group also flagged the Nersa MYPD4 decision, where R69 billion was incorrectly deducted from the return on assets in FY2020 to 2022. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This amount is now being recovered from FY2022, 2024 &#8211; 2027. However, Eskom pointed out that the time value of money lost is approximately R36 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-businesstech wp-block-embed-businesstech\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"WN19LAWRi7\"><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/781614\/a-massive-win-for-eskom-that-will-hit-south-africans-where-it-hurts\/\">A massive win for Eskom &#8211; that will hit South Africans where it hurts<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;A massive win for Eskom &#8211; that will hit South Africans where it hurts&#8221; &#8212; BusinessTech\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/781614\/a-massive-win-for-eskom-that-will-hit-south-africans-where-it-hurts\/embed\/#?secret=FTAWVu02fN#?secret=WN19LAWRi7\" data-secret=\"WN19LAWRi7\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Wider problem<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the reality of Eskom&#8217;s balance sheet cannot be escaped, neither can the reality for South Africans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists, analysts, experts, and even the government have acknowledged that consumers cannot suffer the blow of massive electricity price hikes, calling it a looming crisis and even a threat to national security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/781470\/the-next-crisis-threatening-to-collapse-eskom\/\"><strong>Minister of Electricity and Energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has called it a &#8220;complex issue&#8221;<\/strong><\/a> that needs urgent government intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists, meanwhile, have flagged the wider risks to inflation\u2014while also pointing to a possible death knell for Eskom, which would be encouraging customers to move away from is services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bureau for Economic Research said that, while it remains to be seen what Nersa will grant the power utility\u2014unlikely to be the full 36%\u2014Eskom&#8217;s MYPD6 applications presents a real upside risk to inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;It (would) not only directly push up the electricity component of CPI but also trickle to other prices as producers recoup costs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Of course, higher electricity costs continue to support the investment case for switching to renewable energy,&#8221; it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati has <a href=\"https:\/\/dailyinvestor.com\/energy\/64675\/big-eskom-lie\/\"><strong>denied a massive move away from Eskom<\/strong><\/a>, saying that it is a misconception that customers are fleeing, adding that most businesses continue to rely on the utility for power supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding the economic impact, Eskom also handwaved this argument away, saying that higher electricity prices are actually beneficial to the economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Citing a 2003 report commissioned by the National Treasury, Eskom said that continued sub-economic<br>pricing\u2014prices below long-run marginal costs\u2014in the industry run the risk of increasing real costs in the economy by reducing allocative efficiency. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Furthermore, subeconomic energy prices benefit energy and capital-intensive growth and place labour and skills-intensive development paths at a disadvantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Proper economic pricing of power will reverse skewed incentives in the long-term and support South Africa\u2019s primary economic aim, which is to establish labour-absorbing development paths,&#8221; it said, quoting the report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/792173\/eskom-tables-massive-2025-electricity-price-hike-for-south-africa\/\">Eskom tables massive 2025 electricity price hike for South Africa<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eskom says massive electricity price hikes in South Africa need to happen, because worse lies ahead if they don&#8217;t.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":740289,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-792840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/792840","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=792840"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/792840\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":792889,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/792840\/revisions\/792889"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/740289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=792840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=792840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=792840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}