{"id":799353,"date":"2024-11-12T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-12T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=799353"},"modified":"2024-11-12T08:10:05","modified_gmt":"2024-11-12T06:10:05","slug":"pick-n-pay-stores-worth-less-than-zero","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business\/799353\/pick-n-pay-stores-worth-less-than-zero\/","title":{"rendered":"Pick n Pay stores worth &#8216;less than zero&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Investors have so little trust in Pick n Pay that its effective market cap is negative when the Boxer value is removed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Monday, 11 November 2024, Pick n Pay announced that it would list Boxer on the main board of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) on 28 November 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pick n Pay wholly owns Boxer and has been the retail group\u2019s standout performer in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, Pick n Pay\u2019s financial woes have forced it to take drastic measures to turn the company around, which include a capital raise and listing Boxer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In May 2024, Pick n Pay revealed that it was technically insolvent, as its liabilities were higher than its assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pick n Pay announced its two-step recapitalisation plan to strengthen its balance sheet and become solvent again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Step one was completed three months ago, with its successful R4 billion rights offer helping the Pick n Pay Group return to a positive equity position of R2.9 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second step is the Boxer initial public offering (IPO), through which the company plans to raise between R8 billion and R8.5 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pick n Pay will use the proceeds of the boxer IPO to settle its outstanding debt and reinvest in the core Pick n Pay supermarket business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boxer Superstores is a fantastic business. It is South Africa\u2019s leading discount grocery retailer with an annual turnover of R37.4 billion. It further boasts a trading profit of R2.1 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boxer\u2019s turnover grew at a CAGR of 18.6% between FY2022 and FY2024, with like-for-like growth of 7.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The company has 489 stores and a market share of 68% of the discount grocery retail market in South Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It expects to add 65 new stores by the end of this financial year. The medium-to-long-term aim is to double its store footprint by opening 60 to 70 stores yearly for the next six to seven years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering these numbers, it is easy to see why Boxer is the feather in the Pick n Pay group\u2019s cap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Boxer-stores.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Boxer-stores-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-799358\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Boxer-stores-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Boxer-stores-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Boxer-stores-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Boxer-stores.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Boxer finances<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pick n Pay pre-listing statement for Boxer revealed detailed financial information on Boxer in isolation. This was not previously available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It showed what many people knew. Boxer had strong financials and was behind most of Pick n Pay\u2019s positive performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boxer\u2019s revenue grew by 19% in 2023 and 17% in 2024 to R37.8 billion. It was the engine of the Pick n Pay group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boxer also has strong profitability. It reported a net profit margin of 3.7% in its latest financial year, higher than Shoprite\u2019s comparable net profit margin of 2.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past 3 reporting periods, Boxer\u2019s net profit margin strengthened, indicating that the company is growing its revenue at a faster pace than its expenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"464\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-1-1024x464.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-799354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-1-1024x464.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-1-300x136.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-1-768x348.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-1.jpg 1141w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"467\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-2-1024x467.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-799355\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-2-1024x467.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-2-300x137.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-2-768x350.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-2.jpg 1167w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Pick n Pay versus Boxer<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boxer will issue 190,476,191 shares with a possible additional 11,904,762 shares if the IPO is oversubscribed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The price range of the Boxer shares are estimated to fall between R42 to R54 per share. This translates into a market capitalization of between R23 billion and R29 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This would put Boxer\u2019s IPO price at a P\/E ratio of between 16- and 21-times earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s interesting about this, is that Pick n Pay, which currently owns 100% of Boxer, has a market cap of only R19 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pick n Pay stores in isolation therefore has a negative market cap, meaning it reduces the value of the overall Pick n Pay group.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When isolating Boxer\u2019s equity and revenue figures from that of Pick n Pay it becomes clear that Pick n Pay stores are valued negatively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boxer\u2019s lowest expected market cap puts its price-to-sales ratio at 0.6 times revenue and its price-to-book at 12.3 times equity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that the Pick n Pay group\u2019s market value increases by R0.60 for every unit of revenue and by R12.31 for every unit of equity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When isolating Pick n Pay\u2019s revenue and equity at the group\u2019s current market cap, it has a price-to-sales ratio of -0.01 times revenue and a price-to-book ratio of -3.6 times equity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Every unit of Pick n Pay store revenue decreases the group\u2019s value by R0.01, and every unit of Pick n Pay store equity reduces the group\u2019s value by R3.60.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that Boxer\u2019s value is lower within the Pick n Pay group structure as the presence of Pick n Pay stores&#8217; finances subtracts from the group\u2019s value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Boxer were to achieve its lowest estimate of a R23 billion market cap, it would imply that Pick n Pay stores contributed negatively to the group&#8217;s value by R3.5 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-3.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"478\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-3-1024x478.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-799356\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-3-1024x478.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-3-300x140.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-3-768x359.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2-3.jpg 1116w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business\/799180\/pick-n-pays-r20-billion-power-play\/\">Pick n Pay\u2019s R20 billion power play<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors have so little trust in Pick n Pay that its effective market cap is negative when the Boxer value is removed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":791539,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9872],"tags":[6655,4067],"class_list":["post-799353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-boxer","tag-pick-n-pay"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=799353"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799353\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":799373,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799353\/revisions\/799373"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/791539"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=799353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=799353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=799353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}