{"id":800521,"date":"2024-11-20T08:13:15","date_gmt":"2024-11-20T06:13:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=800521"},"modified":"2024-11-28T17:32:57","modified_gmt":"2024-11-28T15:32:57","slug":"trump-2-0-the-implications-for-the-us-and-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/industry-news\/800521\/trump-2-0-the-implications-for-the-us-and-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump 2.0: The Implications for the US and South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Donald Trump\u2019s return to the presidency signals a renewed push for aggressive trade policies and economic nationalism, potentially affecting global trade and South Africa\u2019s economy, writes Handre Retief, a portfolio manager at Novare Holdings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/novare.com\/?utm_source=BusinessTech&amp;utm_medium=Article&amp;utm_term=November+2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Click here for more info about Novare Holdings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Donald Trump\u2019s recent election win hardly registers as a shock. From the outset, Kamala Harris\u2019s campaign was uninspiring at best, with much of her support likely driven by an anti-Trump vote rather than enthusiasm for her policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, many may wonder why more dynamic individuals could not be found among the 335 million people in the nation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Clearly, South Africa does not have a monopoly on poor political leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump re-enters the Oval Office with a remarkable and controversial legacy for the world\u2019s most powerful country: multiple criminal charges, two impeachments, and the notorious hush-money payment to a porn star. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet, despite \u2013 or because of \u2013 this, he galvanised a passionate voter base, securing both his first popular vote win and a decisive Electoral College victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With his return, the question now shifts to the economic course his administration will take.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump has already signalled a return to his aggressive, protectionist trade policies, including new tariffs aimed at China and penalties on automakers and others who manufacture abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The aim is to incentivise local production, a policy he claims will bring jobs back to American soil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Inflationary tax cuts<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, Trump may revive the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with potential adjustments to make it permanent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This would reduce corporate and individual tax rates, likely boosting economic growth but also fuelling inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether Trump delivers these changes with the determination promised on the campaign trail, remains to be seen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Parts of the tax cuts expire at the end of 2025 unless Congress extend or make them permanent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While Trump\u2019s policies may seem distant, their ripple effects could influence South Africa. His \u201cAmerica First\u201d agenda, if followed through with vigour, might affect global trade flows and commodity markets, potentially disrupting South African exports. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If US-China relations strain over tariffs, South Africa\u2019s trade dynamics with both superpowers could face indirect consequences, albeit subtly compared to its domestic challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If relations between the US and China strain over tariffs, then South Africa\u2019s trade dynamics with both superpowers could face indirect consequences, albeit subtly, compared to the country\u2019s domestic challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, if Trump\u2019s policies succeed in accelerating US economic growth, South Africa may benefit from stronger global demand and a more stable global economic environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Looking inward-out<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019s return reflects a broader trend in global politics: a shift toward economic nationalism and a focus on practical, \u201cbread and butter\u201d issues like job creation, security, and immigration control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This trend isn\u2019t limited to the US; across Europe, nationalist movements have gained momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Countries like Hungary, Poland, and Italy have embraced leaders and policies centred on sovereignty, economic protectionism, personal safety and scepticism of organisations like the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> Similarly, France\u2019s far-right leader Marine Le Pen has gained influence, while the UK\u2019s Brexit vote and policies remain emblematic of this nationalist wave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For South Africa, this is a warning: people want tangible solutions to tangible problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africa faces many of the same issues driving this global shift \u2013 rising unemployment, persistent inequality, economic stagnation, and growing frustration with leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Daily reports of corruption, soaring levels of crime and a collapse in service delivery have eroded trust in government institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Trump\u2019s economic nationalism succeeds, it could embolden South Africa\u2019s leaders to pursue more isolationist or populist policies, potentially exacerbating the country\u2019s challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, it could serve as a reminder of the importance of balancing pragmatism with inclusivity and global engagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As an emerging market, and a government with very limited resources, those in power have no choice but to choose their friends wisely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africa needs businesses to rebuild its economy and its people, but it also needs foreign capital to facilitate this, from several corners of the earth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the world watches the next four years unfold in the US, South Africa must not lose sight of its own urgent need for effective leadership, policies that prioritise the economy, and solutions that resonate with its people. The stakes are too high to ignore.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Donald Trump\u2019s return to the presidency signals a renewed push for aggressive trade policies and economic nationalism, potentially affecting global trade and South Africa\u2019s economy, writes Handre Retief, a portfolio manager at Novare Holdings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":788680,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10459],"tags":[10849,18143],"class_list":["post-800521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry-news","tag-donald-trump","tag-novare-holdings"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/800521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=800521"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/800521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":802014,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/800521\/revisions\/802014"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/788680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=800521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=800521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=800521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}