{"id":806036,"date":"2025-01-08T08:30:32","date_gmt":"2025-01-08T06:30:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=806036"},"modified":"2025-01-08T08:30:32","modified_gmt":"2025-01-08T06:30:32","slug":"warning-signs-for-petrol-prices-in-february","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/806036\/warning-signs-for-petrol-prices-in-february\/","title":{"rendered":"Warning signs for petrol prices in February"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>After three consecutive fuel price increases, early data shows South Africans may see more pain at the pumps in February. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fuel prices did not start 2025 on a positive note, with prices going up by\u00a012 and 19 cents per litre for 93 and 95 petrol respectively, and between\u00a07.50 and 10.50 cents per litre for diesel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This was due to both the global price of petrol increase in December and the rand coming in weaker relative to November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund, movements in international produce prices show a 27.704 cent under-recovery for 95 petrol in South Africa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The jump in oil prices comes amid economic hopes in one of the world&#8217;s largest economies, with China potentially seeing more demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his New Year&#8217;s address, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China will be more proactive in measures to boost economic growth in 2025, potentially boosting oil demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is also an expectation of higher inventories as heating oil and gasoil&nbsp;are needed in the UK, EU and US amid severe cold fronts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The movement in the exchange rate between the rand and the US dollar has also led to an under-recovery of 37.0222 cents for 95 petrol. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand has been severely impacted by US interest rate cut expectations cooling, leading to dollar strength. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Combined, international prices and the rand would lead to an increase of 65 cents for a litre of 95 petrol. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This picture is worse for diesel, with price increases ranging from 70 cents to 74 cents per litre. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The proposed increases are as follows: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark>&nbsp;of 69 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:&nbsp;<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark>&nbsp;of 65 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale):<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark>&nbsp;of 70 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark>&nbsp;of 74 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin:<\/strong>&nbsp;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">increase<\/mark>&nbsp;of 52 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-27.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"471\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-27-1024x471.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-806040\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-27-1024x471.png 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-27-300x138.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-27-768x353.png 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-27.png 1085w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Central Energy Fund<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The rand<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop noted that the rand weakened sharply in the second half of December to an average of R18.91\/$. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand remains in this region, sitting at R18.71 on 7 January 2025. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US monetary policy meeting on the 18th of December saw inflation forecasts for 2025 rise from 2.0% to 2.5%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This increased inflation forecast has led to concerns over fewer rate cuts in the world&#8217;s largest economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fewer US interest rate cuts are supportive of a stronger US dollar, which has been instrumental in weakening the rand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The substantial shift in forecasts held early in December 2024 versus early in January 2025 has been a major reason for the rand weakening by more than R1\/USD over the period,&#8221; said Bishop. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The developments have little to do with recent domestic updates, with the rand far less volatile against the pound and euro. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-businesstech wp-block-embed-businesstech\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"g09gXomJQn\"><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/805869\/how-the-the-rand-could-hit-r21-to-the-dollar-in-2025\/\">How the the rand could hit R21 to the dollar in 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;How the the rand could hit R21 to the dollar in 2025&#8221; &#8212; BusinessTech\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/805869\/how-the-the-rand-could-hit-r21-to-the-dollar-in-2025\/embed\/#?secret=51xPp1a42Q#?secret=g09gXomJQn\" data-secret=\"g09gXomJQn\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Oil prices <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Following a rally at the start of the year following Xi&#8217;s address, crude oil prices could remain under some pressure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Maria Agustina&nbsp;Patti, a Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness, said that the market could see price corrections after its recent rally as concerns around demand levels remain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Traders could continue to monitor the economic developments in major&nbsp;oil-importing countries to gauge the demand potential,&#8221; said Patti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;In this regard, rising supply from non-OPEC countries and concerns about weak demand from China could put the market under more pressure.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are also concerns about a tightening of supply from Russia and Iran due to Western Sanctions, which could support crude prices and put a floor under the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, at the same time, there has been a stronger demand for Middle Eastern&nbsp;oil, which was reflected in the recent rise in Saudi Arabia\u2019s&nbsp;oil&nbsp;prices&nbsp;for Asia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Market participants&#8217; are now focusing on potential policy shifts including Biden&#8217;s recent measures to restrict&nbsp;oil&nbsp;and gas developments which could affect supply levels. Additionally, US&nbsp;crude&nbsp;inventory data remains a critical factor in assessing near-term dynamics,&#8221; said Patti. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the latest CEF data only showing data from the start of the month, there is still potential for shifts in official fuel prices in February. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Read<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/805407\/social-unrest-warning-in-south-africa-over-electricity-price-hikes\/\">Social unrest warning in South Africa over electricity price hikes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/805289\/eskom-getting-replaced\/\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>South Africa looks set for a fourth straight increase in petrol prices, with international prices and the rand heading in the wrong direction. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":95,"featured_media":779954,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[8995,15736,1498],"class_list":["post-806036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-cef","tag-exness","tag-investec"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/806036","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/95"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=806036"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/806036\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":806047,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/806036\/revisions\/806047"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/779954"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=806036"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=806036"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=806036"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}