Eskom said the average unplanned unavailability for this summer is about 11,500MW, which means no load-shedding is anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2024, Eskom reached a significant milestone by suspending load-shedding for nine months or 275 consecutive days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By 13 January 2025, the national power utility has racked up 292 consecutive days with no load shedding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
South Africa has not experienced load-shedding since 26 March 2024, and the country has become accustomed to having a stable electricity supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although this is the default in most countries, it is a luxury in South Africa, which has been plagued by rolling blackouts for fifteen years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Eskom said this achievement resulted from its Generation Recovery Plan and enhanced maintenance protocols.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The power utility also used the December summer break to increase planned maintenance and improve the reliability of its generation fleet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe recovery plan significantly improved operational performance by reducing unplanned outages by 8.1% compared to last year,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Additionally, diesel savings of R16.20 billion year over year were recorded, which is about 65.1% less than the R24.89 billion spent during the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the good performance over the last nine months, Eskom\u2019s 52-week outlook for 2025 still predicts a likely risk scenario where there will be a shortfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The outlook shows a “likely risk” scenario where Eskom will have a shortfall of over 2,000MW for most winter months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, Eskom explained that the unplanned unavailability assumption may be too aggressive in this forecast and will most likely not occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It said the average unplanned unavailability for this summer is about 11,500MW\u2014about 1,500MW lower than the base case assumption for the Summer Outlook shared in August 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAt this level of unplanned unavailability, no load-shedding is anticipated,\u201d Eskom told BusinessTech in response to questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It added that the heightened risk indicated on the longer-term outlook is based on the Summer Outlook assumption for unplanned unavailability of 13,000MW. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe unplanned unavailability assumption will be calibrated for the upcoming winter based on the summer performance,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Eskom\u2019s official 52-Week Outlook is shown below. However, based on Eskom’s feedback, this is not the likely scenario.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n
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