![\"\"](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Elize-Kruger.jpg\")
<\/a>According to publicly available data sources, nominal salary increases for 2025 are forecast to range between 4.1% and 6.5%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In real terms, if inflation holds, this would translate to a real increase of between 0.5% and 2.9% this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On a forecast average nominal salary increase of 5.3% and an average headline CPI projection of 3.6%, a real wage increase of 1.7% could be realised in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis will be the second consecutive annual real increase and an important supporting factor for household consumption expenditure in 2025,\u201d Kruger said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the global economy has become increasingly uncertain due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential negative impact of the evolving global trade war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the ultimate impact on South Africa\u2019s economy is still unclear, it is unlikely to be favourable and, as such, represents a downside risk to the real GDP growth forecast of 1.5% for 2025, Kruger said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another big risk is that taxes\u2014particularly the VAT hike to 15.5% in 2025\u2014will drive up inflation and reduce disposable income, while the trade war will do the same for global and local pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee flagged this when it held interest rates last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This has resulted in interest rates being held in what some economists deem restrictive territory, keeping the pressure on households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While interest rates have come down by 75 basis points since September 2024, lending rates are still higher than they were pre-Covid-19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Economists and analysts\u2014and the SARB itself\u2014see room for at least another 25 basis point cut, but the timing of this is up in the air.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The SARB, along with other central banks, is taking a ‘wait and see’ approach on global politics. Further interest rate cuts are only expected once the waters have settled.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Take-home pay in South Africa is up significantly from last year, but economists warn that 2025 still holds a lot of risks that will keep households under pressure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":682055,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9880],"tags":[1976,22125],"class_list":["post-818230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-wealth","tag-bankservafrica","tag-take-home-pay-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/818230","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=818230"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/818230\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":818237,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/818230\/revisions\/818237"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/682055"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=818230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=818230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=818230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}