{"id":823510,"date":"2025-05-08T14:08:02","date_gmt":"2025-05-08T12:08:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=823510"},"modified":"2025-05-08T14:08:08","modified_gmt":"2025-05-08T12:08:08","slug":"more-petrol-price-joy-expected-in-june","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/823510\/more-petrol-price-joy-expected-in-june\/","title":{"rendered":"More petrol price joy expected in June"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that fuel prices are starting May off on the front foot, with expectations for another cut to pump prices in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The data, covering the first week in May, shows that both a lower oil price and a stronger rand are contributing to over-recoveries in fuel prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Petrol prices are showing an over-recovery of around 56 cents per litre, while diesel is showing an over-recovery of 94 cents per litre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Should the current market conditions follow through the rest of the month, motorists can expect more relief in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are the early projections:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Petrol 93:<\/strong>\u00a0<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark>\u00a0<\/mark>of 57 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Petrol 95:\u00a0<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark>\u00a0<\/mark>of 56 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.05% (wholesale):<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">\u00a0<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><\/mark>\u00a0of 94 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diesel 0.005% (wholesale):<\/strong>\u00a0<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">\u00a0<\/mark>of 94 cents per litre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Illuminating paraffin:<\/strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">\u00a0<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">decrease<\/mark><\/mark>\u00a0of 89 cents per litre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>While the start of the month is still too early to decisively call the likely movement for fuel prices next month, they give a solid indication of where recoveries are headed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Starting off in positive territory means that oil markets and currency exchanges would have to swing significantly to lead to an under-recovery, putting motorists in good stead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, economists don&#8217;t foresee this happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop this week noted that both global oil markets and the rand\/dollar exchange are likely to remain favourable in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rand has strengthened since the start of the month, recovering to R18.16 on Thursday (8 May) as markets digested the hold on interest rates by the US Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The tone on rate cuts has changed significantly from the dour predictions of an indefinite hold in April. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is thanks to the impact of US President Donald Trump&#8217;s global tariff and trade war not being as pronounced as expected, particularly as the president walked back some of the more damaging policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets now anticipate two to three interest rate cuts in the US this year, softening the dollar and supporting a stronger rand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Locally, expectations for interest rate cuts in South Africa have also turned, with economists expecting one or two cuts in the cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the prevailing economic data has been somewhat supportive of the rand, the unit is still far off from the sub-R18\/$ levels seen late 2024 and early 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Bishop, this is because a lot of uncertainty still persists in the market. However, it is in a stronger position relative to April, helping with fuel recoveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil prices tumble<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Donald-Trump.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Donald-Trump-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-798708\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Donald-Trump-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Donald-Trump-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Donald-Trump-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Donald-Trump.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">US president Donald Trump&#8217;s trade and tariff war has thrown the global economy into caution mode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The larger contributor to the current fuel price recoveries is the weaker global oil price, which has moved below $62 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices have also been subject to the wider market turmoil brought by Trump&#8217;s tariff war, impacting demand and pushing prices lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has come even as producers increase supply, creating a glut in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Bloomberg analysis of the oil market, crude has been on a downward trajectory due to concerns around the potential hit to global growth from Trump\u2019s sweeping tariffs, as well as recent OPEC+ decisions to boost idled output. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, it noted that prices could firm up as the United States engages with China on trade, and talks to major economies like the UK on its actual plans going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Donald Trump is expected to announce a deal with the UK that may signal the direction his global trade war will take,&#8221; the analysts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;While the US president didn\u2019t identify the country or details about the agreement in a Truth Social post, people familiar with the matter said it was expected to be with the UK.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The news comes ahead of trade talks between US and Chinese officials this week, though Trump said on Wednesday that he\u2019s unwilling to preemptively lower tariffs on China to jump-start negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other analysts have noted that any gains on the market from these negotiations will be limited due to the demand-side concerns lingering thanks to global economic uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed&#8217;s hold on interest rates has added to a cautious outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless, the lower oil price relative to April is helping recoveries in South Africa, contributing between 30 and 67 cents per litre to the positive position.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>South African motorists are getting a positive early start to the month, with petrol prices lining up for another cut in June if current conditions persist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":821002,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[19853,1850,8995,2171],"class_list":["post-823510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-annabel-bishop","tag-bloomberg","tag-cef","tag-petrol-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/823510","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=823510"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/823510\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":823515,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/823510\/revisions\/823515"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/821002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=823510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=823510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=823510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}